Friday, January 29, 2010

Palin Alaska Standing Falls

Six months after leaving office Sarah Palin hasn't regained her popularity with Alaska voters. Just 47% of them now have a favorable opinion of her with 45% seeing her negatively.

Palin hasn't seen much slippage with the Republican base in her home state- 78% of them view her positively to just 15% unfavorable. But she's disliked by more than half of independents (36/55) and Democrats (24/74). Her standing in Alaska also reflects a reverse gender gap that we've found in opinion about Palin on several of our polls- her net favorability is +8 with men but -5 with women.

The trends in Palin's Alaska numbers reveal the same fundamental truths as her national ones- she's beloved by the Republican base and loathed by most everyone else. Not a good formula for victory in 2012.

Sean Parnell is facing opposition from both Democrats and Republicans as he seeks a full term as Governor, but his popularity at this point would make him unbeatable if he's able to sustain it through the year. 58% of voters in the state approve of the job he's doing to just 19% who give him bad marks. He pulls off a feat only Arkansas' Mike Beebe has matched in our recent polling with majority support from Republicans (66%), independents (55%), and Democrats (51%). Those are not the numbers of a vulnerable incumbent.

Barack Obama's standing in Alaska hasn't changed much since he won 38% of the vote there in November 2008. His approval rating is 37% with 56% of voters disapproving of him. His party is happy with him (76% approval) but he's under water with independents at 43/49, and only 4% of Republicans like how he's doing. The Obama campaign gave serious thought to contesting Alaska in 2008 until Palin went on the ticket- in an odd twist of fate it seems the only chance Obama might have to make it competitive in 2012 is if Palin's on the ticket, given her steep decline in popularity.

Full results here


Darren said...

Did you guys do congress matchups for Don Young?

Tom Jensen said...

Yes- coming Monday

Simple thoughts said...

the Real Headline is Sen.Mark Begich with only a 35% approval rating!

Christian Liberty said...

Democrats for Palin!!

"We are the Reagan Democrats that were Hillary Democrats, that were Scott Brown Democrats, and that quite frankly will be Palin Democrats in the future. Because we are moderate Democrats that do not like what the left is doing. We see what they're doing and the left is attacking us for it." cast-interview-pro-hillary-site-faces-persecution-from-the-left/

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