Monday, June 21, 2010

Thoughts on the Enthusiasm Gap

Every week the media gets very hyper and gleefully pushes the Democratic doom narrative when a new poll comes out showing that voters very excited about casting their ballots this fall strongly favor the GOP. In many cases the number among 'very excited' voters gets more play than the overall numbers. That's a mistake.

Our last national poll finds the same thing every other poll does. Very excited voters favor Republicans on the generic Congressional ballot 50-38. But Democrats lead 53-35 with somewhat excited voters and 45-27 with not very excited voters, giving them an overall 43-41 lead.

So which number matters more- the overall one or the one among highly enthused voters? Let's look at a few of the races we've already had this cycle:

-In the special House election in Pennsylvania last month our polling found Republican Tim Burns up 60-38 with very excited voters. He trailed 50-46 with somewhat excited voters and 53-37 with not very excited voters. Burns lost the election because the Democrats, excited or not, still turned out.

-In the Massachusetts Senate race Scott Brown led 59-40 with very excited voters, trailed 60-35 with somewhat excited ones, and trailed 61-31 with not very excited ones. He won but those folks who said they weren't very excited still showed up and kept his margin of victory to 5 points.

-In the New Jersey Governor's race Chris Christie lead 60-34 on our final poll with very excited voters, trailed 44-42 with somewhat excited ones, and tied at 39 with not very excited ones. Like Brown he won, but it was only by 4 points and nowhere close to the 26 point lead he showed with very excited voters.

Clearly there is a significant enthusiasm gap that is playing to Republicans' advantage. But most poll answering Democrats who say they're unexcited about voting are still doing so in the races we've had thus far this cycle, so getting too excited about large Republican leads with highly enthused voters when the overall numbers tell a different story is somewhat misleading. An unexcited vote counts just the same as a very excited one.


herbs814 said...

"Every week the media gets very hyper and gleefully pushes the Democratic doom narrative"

No. Every week the media gets hyper trying to be Democratic cheerleaders. Only recently has the media become more in tuned with reality.

Now the media is hedging their bets, trying to downplay their leftist cheerleading so that they don't look so horribly out of touch when the Republican landslide comes in November.

Anonymous said...

So who do you think will win the North Carolina Dem senate runoff.

herbs814 said...

If the economy will drive the election, it is revealing that the proportion of people who fault Obama for the economy is at the highest ever... while the proportion that blames Bush is at the lowest ever.

Men now fault Obama rather than Bush by 49-40%

48% of LV find Obama's handling of the economy "poor"

And solid majorities of LV still want Obamacare REPEALED.

herbs814 said...

PA-12: The Democrat UNDERPERFORMED expectations by a wide margin. When Democrats were 62% of registered voters and 64% of primary day turnout, the Democrat only earned 53% of the vote.

If Democrats UNDERPERFORM their registration numbers nationwide like they did in PA, the house will certainly go to the Republicans.

Anonymous said...

Has Christian"Liberty" crated a new account? Reads like the exact same drivel.
Hey, Obama terribly underperformed Democratic registration numbers in PA-12, Democrats alwas perform their registration numbers in OK, AL and KY. How'd that work out for them in 2008?

NRH said...

Yeah, there are certain grammatical and format similarities. It's a rather ironic name, since herbs seems to be a bit nutty.

herbs814 said...

The pro-Republican enthusiasm gap is the strongest ever in Gallup history of asking the question. Democrats' struggles in PA are just one symptom of the struggles Democrats will face nationwide.

2010 will easily be the most pro-Republican year since 1994. Chances are, Republicans will take back the House... and PA will cost Democrats more congressional seats than in any other state.

Anonymous said...

"Has Christian"Liberty" crated a new account?"

Y'see, rightwing nutjobs have to be anonymous. They don't want to tie their ideas to actual faces. When Christian Liberty did, he apparently became embarrassed from unwanted attention and went behind some other shield.

Herbs814, care to show us your face?

Dustin Ingalls said...

Well, somehow I didn't think to click on our new buddy herbs814's username. It links to one Christian Liberty's YouTube account.

herbs814 said...

took you long enough...

Google closed the Christian Liberty blogspot. So I'm using my existing youtube account.

I'm doing my best to educate leftist fruitcakes about the reality of what Americans want. Americans want smaller government, lower taxes, and more liberty. Americans want everything that the Democrats are against... and Americans are against everything that the Democrats are for. That is why Democrats will become a diminished regional party unless they turn sharply to the right.

herbs814 said...

Obamacare is turning independents AGAINST Democrats

A majority of voters in each of these 11 states with competitive senate races (Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Louisiana, Missouri, Nevada, North Dakota, Ohio and Pennsylvania) oppose Obamacare.

"In both January and May, opinion about reform had a statistically significant and electorally important impact on intention to vote against the Democratic candidate for Senate. Voters who opposed health reform were around 20 percentage points more likely to vote for the Republican candidate."

herbs814 said...

Did I just see "Anonymous" get pissy with me over what name I use for a comment. LOL LOL LOL

Just the kind of shameless hypocrisy we've come to expect from the left.

Anonymous said...

Google closed your blog? Couldn't be because you're a nutjob, could it?

joe said...

This "herb" person is like one of those talking dolls. You pull the string, and the doll has some pre-recorded thing it's programmed to say, that has nothing to do with anything.

I believe such dolls are designed for the 3-6 age group.

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