Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Challenging the CW on Libertarian Votes

There is generally an assumption that a vote for a Libertarian is a vote taken away from a Republican. Our analysis finds that's not necessarily the case:

-60% of voters who support Michael Munger for Governor support Barack Obama for President with 19% going for Bob Barr and just 14% for John McCain. A plurality also support Kay Hagan (40%), with 36% going to Christopher Cole and 19% to Elizabeth Dole. So in this case his supporters are pretty clearly taking support from Bev Perdue. This could be a product of liberals antagonized by Perdue's stands on offshore drilling and community college attendance for illegal immigrants going over to Munger until Perdue gives them a reason to vote for her.

-Among those supporting Christopher Cole for Senate it is basically a dead heat between John McCain and Barack Obama. 39% of them go for McCain, 34% of them go for Obama, and 19% support Bob Barr. For Governor 44% support Pat McCrory, 30% for Munger, and 23% for Perdue.

-Bob Barr's supporters are also going Libertarian for US Senate- 41% support Cole, 28% support Hagan, and 25% support Dole. For Governor it's almost a three way tie, with 36% going for McCrory, 33% for Munger, and 27% for Perdue.

The bottom line? It looks the Libertarians are taking roughly equal numbers of voters from Republicans and Democrats, and if there is any lean toward them taking from Republicans it's a small one.

1 comment:

T.J. said...

I don't think this is a zero sum game. While I believe a number of pro-Munger and pro-Cole voters are pulled from people who would have voted for the candidates for the Dems or Repubs, a number are also NEW voters who wouldn't have voted at all if it weren't for the Libertarian candidates. Libertarian votes add to the pool; they don't simply reallocate votes within the pool.

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