Barack Obama 51
John McCain 41
Barack Obama has opened up a ten point lead in Michigan after leading by just a single point right on the heels of the Republican convention.
The two main factors driving Obama's increased success seem to be the economy and Sarah Palin. 69% of Michigan voters, higher than in any other competitive state PPP has polled, list the economy as their top issue. Obama has a 54-37 lead with those respondents.
Sarah Palin has also seen her popularity declined rapidly. Right after the convention 45% of Michiganians said her selection made them more likely to vote for John McCain while 35% said it made them less likely to do so. Now just 39% say her place on the ticket makes them more inclined to vote for McCain as the number saying she hurts him has increased to 43%. That's a 14 point downward move in her net popularity over the last three weeks.
The overall impact of this has been:
-A 17 point gain for Obama with female voters, from a three point lead to a 20 point lead.
-A significant shoring up of the Democratic base. Where before he led 81-14 with voters of his own party, now it's 89-6. Not much doubt at this point that Hillary's supporters have come home.
-A tightening of the race with white voters. What was a 16 point lead for McCain is now just three.
Carl Levin continues to cruise for reelection to the Senate, leading challenger Jack Hoogendyk 50-32.
Full results here.