Sunday, November 1, 2009

Christie leads

Chris Christie leads Jon Corzine 47-41 in PPP's final poll of the New Jersey Governor's race, with Chris Daggett at 11%.

Corzine had pulled to within a point of Christie on our poll three weeks ago after trailing by as many as 14 points over the summer, but his momentum has stalled since then and Christie's built his lead back up to 4 points last week and now 6.

Christie's advantage is due largely to his support from independents and because he has Republicans more unified around him than the Democrats are around Corzine. Christie leads Corzine 52-29 with indies, as Daggett's support with that group has declined to 16%. Christie is getting 82% of Republicans to Corzine's 72% of Democrats.

As the campaign concludes it seems like Daggett's presence in the race has actually ended up hurting Corzine more than Christie, contrary to the earlier conventional wisdom. 45% of Daggett voters say the incumbent is their second choice to 36% for the challenger. Daggett's backers report having voted for Barack Obama by a 67-23 margin last year.

As is the case around the country this year enthusiasm is on the Republicans' side in New Jersey. 47% of Christie's supporters say they're 'very excited' about voting this fall to just 34% of Corzine's. The electorate is also likely to be more Republican leaning this year with likely voters reporting that they voted for Obama by a 54-43 margin in 2008, a spread narrower than the actual 57-42 result in the state.

In a finding symbolic of how unenthralled New Jersey voters were with their choices this year Christie is polling at 47% despite the fact that only 40% of voters think he made a strong case for why he should be elected Governor. Fully 27% of Christie's supporters don't feel he made the case for himself but Corzine's approval rating with that group of voters is only 3%, and those folks seem to have picked Christie as the lesser of two evils.

Corzine could still win with an exceptional Democratic turnout on Tuesday but there aren't a lot of factors in the race pointing to that as a strong possibility.

Full results here

49 comments:

Anonymous said...

So are the Republicans going to sweep the Democrats at the polls this year? May be a bad sign for 2010...

Anonymous said...

This is a pretty amazing result. It does seem like Corzine just hits a ceiling at 41%-43% ... and even if Daggett polls 10% or 11%, which I think is his upper limit, that still gives Christie 46% and the election.

I'm sure the Dems have the better turnout machine than Reps in NJ ... but poor ol' Corzine is just too unpopular even for this blue state.

Say goodnight, Jon.

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the poll, but Obama's favorability numbers are too low in this poll, and inconsistent with a dosen other, he is well at over 50% in NJ.

Proud Texan said...

It's good to hear that the voters in NJ are waking up.

Raven said...

Corzine will answer for TapeGate.

Anonymous said...

I predict its Christie in a runaway. The RCP average shows Christie regaining momentum in the final days after Corzine had had his moment's time. Democrats will go 1/4 on Tuesday. (winning CA-10)

Anonymous said...

Looks like the NJ governor's race is over. The toll road gaffe with the NYT interview might have been the nail in the coffin for Corzine. Combine that with some good political moves by Christie ( Imus interview, highlighting Bergen County corruption) and ill-timed drug charges against a Corzine campaign staffer has created some real strong momentum for Christie. Of course, the timing of this couldn't be any worse for Corzine. Wow, NJ is going to go red. This doesn't portend well for the Democrats in the 2010 elections.

Anonymous said...

This seems to be inconsistant with other recent polls which give Corzine either a slight lead or put him only slightly behind.

Anonymous said...

this also shows all of "Stalinist"
conservatives don't throw out everyone who isn't "pure"

Christie isn't perfect, but he's no Dede Scozzafailure.

Anonymous said...

It's okay of Corzine loses since Obama will just appoint him as Treasury Secretary in his second term.

AuntPittypat said...

After reading the internals of the Monmounth U/Gannett survey today, you seem to be confirming their findings of a shift in momentum back to Christie. They have Christie up by 1 and you have him up by 6. It will be interesting to see which poll comes closer.

Thanks for all your hard work this weekend. It's appreciated.

Kerboo said...

ACORN has no intention of letting Corzine lose.
Plenty of "bodies" to pull this one out.

gregq said...

Anonymous #3:

The question they're answering isn't "what is Obama's favorability rating in New Jersey?" The question is "what is Obama's favorability rating among people likely to vote on Tuesday?"

Since their turnout answer is "Republicans are more interested in voting on Tuesday than are Democrats", it makes perfectly good sense that Obama's favorability rating will be lower.

Anonymous said...

ACORN is already gearing up in Camden to rig the election for Corzine using absentee voter ballots. According to BigGovernment.com, Plenty of ACORN workers were seen leaving a local hospital with 10 absentee ballots each and now completed ballots have been handed in where signatures don't match that of the original voters. Dems want this overlooked as long as the addresses match. They must think everyone is stupid like their scapegoat ACORN minions.

Anonymous said...

I hope the voters in NJ don't get complacent believing this is a shoo in for Christie. They MUST vote regardless of what the pundits/polls say and send a clear message of Wasington.

Anonymous said...

Corzine could better off going to Atlantic City for a better return on his BIG investment. I think by now Obama is just going through the motions of his campaigning. Obama to Corzine is a sprinter for short distance running as opposed to a marathoner who has the discipline for the longer races.

Anonymous said...

It's good to see the voters waking up. I just hope the Republican party is waking up.

Anonymous said...

ACORN to the rescue, load those trunks with ballots gang, let's get hopping!

AllenS said...

Unfortunately, your polling doesn't track dead voters. Voters which will always vote Democrat. They are usually good for about 5% of the voters. Which means it's close to a toss up.

Anonymous said...

Is New Jersey finally coming to its senses? I will never call it the arm pit of america again if they finally take a stand against these big gov't, tax and spend liberals in their rapidly declining state. Highest taxes in America including some of the most insane real estate taxes I have ever heard of with hundreds of thousands fleeing in mass.....It took way to long for them to come to their senses but maybe they can finally save their state from irrelevance!

Anonymous said...

I was on the DC mall on 9/12. I contributed to Christie from outside NJ as did thousands of other citizen patriots.

When citizen taxpayers become involved, crooks, liars, cheats and liberal regressives will be overthrown (I apologize for redundancy - sarc).

Stop punishing success and rewarding failure like Obama and liberal regressives do. Take back your country. It belongs to you.

PS: Cancel your newspaper and cable until 2010 election is over. Support people who believe in YOUR freedom. Fight the rest.

Mike said...

What this election will come down, as will NY-23, is who shows up.

In NY-23, the conservatives will be out in force, and will overpower anything the Dems can do.

In NJ, Christie might not be a true conservative, but he's close enough for most conservatives to say "yes" to, given the known alternative.

In VA, it's all over. The real interest there is how many state seats the GOP can take back from the Dems.

Anonymous said...

I lived in jersey all my life..Christie is no conservative...he's a Republican..I am a conservative...I will vote for Christie....as will my entire family of 22 lots of relatives...we live in Ocean and Bergen County...then go to church.

Anonymous said...

Count on Acorn and democrats to get the negro vote out. NJ is so rife with corruption I would not be surprised with a Corzine victory.

Anonymous said...

NJ people! Have cameras and cell phones handy to record any intimidation and attempted fraud tomorrow. I'm hearing that the D-rats are complaining that 3000 absentee ballots were tossed because the signatures didn't match. Guess they don't care if those were frauds.

Mary Ann said...

My name is Mary Ann from Rocheser N.Y and I cast for Obama last year but I don't like the direction the country is ging in,so I have listened and opened my mind to other talanted politicians and I'm now independent. I am supporting Chris Christi for Gov. of NJ. Why,well I heard him in a few interviews and checked him out and this guy is smart. I also think if NJ wants more of the same higher taxes, property,sales,high unemployment higer than N.Y. than Corrzine is the INCOMPENTENT GUY FOR YOU. But let me say what a nasty campaigner he is for people who struggle with being over weight, obesity and fat as the nasty campaign ad Corrzine put out on Chris Christi and he ment his body weight how dispicable that was and I could lose a few pounds myself. I respect that CHRISTI came out and said "I struggle with my weight" on a national t.v. show. Maybe Obama should check in to the fat gene that causes millions of Americans to struggle with their weight because I do believe there is a genetic component to that. ALL NJ OVERWEIGHT PEOPLE SHOULD BE OFFENDED BY THAT. OBAMA'S CAMPAIGNING FOR CHRISTI AMOUNTED TO LITTLE BECAUSE YOU HAVE 2 SKINNY CRONIES AND OBAMA HAS HIS OWN POLITICAL AGENDA FOR CORRZINE TO WIN,SUCH AS HIS OWN POLITICAL FUTURE. I VOTED FOR OBAMA BUT NOW I'M INDEPENDENT. I WILL SAY CHRISTI IS A SMART HANDSOME GUY AND YOUTHFUL TO THE MULTIMILLIONAIRE SKINNY GUY WHO HAS DONE NOTHING FOR THE GARDEN STATE AND INSULTS FAT PEOPLE BECAUSE CORRZINE IS FAT PREDJUDICE. I WOULD RATHER TAKE A LEAP OF FAITH AND VOTE FOR A REFRESHING GUY LIKE CHRIS CHRISTI WHO CAN SOLVE THE PROBLEMS NJ IS NOW FACING. NJ PEOPLE VOTE CHRIS CHRISTI IN YOUR FAITH AND I DON'T THINK YOU WILL BE DISAPPOINTED ,HE IS SMART AND I HAVE COMPASSION FOR PEOPLE WHO DO STRUGGLE WITH THEIR WEIGHT. CHRISTI IS A DECENT GUY. SINCERELY MARY ANN 9ROCHESTER NEW YORK)BEST WISHES NEW JERSEY!

Anonymous said...

Corzine has been horrible for New Jersey, so I hope the good people vote him out. Will Christie be any better? He can't be any worse, and at least he has pledge to cut taxes, and his interview with Imus shows he has a sense of humor.

For most voters, it's not about ideology but about who has solutions for the problems facing them. Corzine's had time to fix things, and he hasn't. So it's time to give someone else a shot.

Mary Ann said...

Hi! My name is Mary Ann and I'm from Rochester New York and last year cast my vote for Obama. I'm now independent and supporting Chris Christi. Why? I have heard himn speake severl times and he is smart,exoerienced and youthful. I also compliment on how raw honest he was about his struggle with his weight after that nast politial ad about Christi throwing his weight around. OH! says Corrzine ,it's not about his body weight,but it was because that is nast politics from a skinny ,older multi millionaire who needs Obama to campaign for him and Obama has his own political ageanda for getting this INCOMPETENT CORRZINE REELECTED. I'M FROM ROCHESTER N.Y. AND NJ IS IN TROUBLE WITH THE HIGHEST TAXES ON SALES,PROPERTY AND A VERY HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT RATE WORSE THATN NEW YORK. IF YOU WANT MORE OF THE SAME INCOMPETENCY THAT GOV. CORRZINE HAS GIVEN YOU THAN HE IS YOUR GUY, BUT IF YOU WANT A REFRESHING HANDSOME EXPERINCED YOUTHFUL GUY CHRISTI IS YOUR MAN. HE IS SMART ,YOUTHFUL AND ANGRILY PASSIONATE ON WHY NJ GOT IN THE SHAPE IT'S GOTTEN IN TO. YOU CANTHATNK CORRZINE FOR THAT. I WILL ALSO ANGRILY SAY THAT CORRZINE IS FAT PREDJUDICE ,YEA YOU HEARD RIGHT BECAUSE THAT NAST CAMPAIGN AD ABOUT CHRISTI THROWING HIS WEIGHT AROUND IN DISPICABLE, INSENITIVE TO ALL AMERICANS AND I DO BELIEVE THAT OBAMA SHOULD PUT SOME MONEY TOWARDS THE FAT GENE. HOW INSULTING FROM THIS ARROGANT SKINNY OLDER AND SAME OLE POLITICS AS USUAL TO INSULT NOT JUST CHRISTI'S WEIGHT BUT ALL NEW JERSEY AMERIANS WHO ARE OVERWEIGHT,OBESE,AND FAT AND STRUGGLE PAINFULLY WITH IT. I SAY TO ALL NEW JERSEY PEOPLE TAKE A LEAP OF FAITH AND VOTE FOR CHRIS CHRISTI FOR YOUR NEXT GOVEROR AND I KNOW YOU WON'T BE DISAPPOINTED. COME OUT IN YOUR STATE AND VOTE . BEST WISHES TO ALL NEW JERSEY PEOPLE. SINCERELY MARY ANN (ROCHESTER NEW YORK)

Anonymous said...

Christie needs to win by 5-10 points otherwise democrats will demand a vote count to buy time to manufacture votes.

Anonymous said...

Say no to Corzine and say hell no to Obama..We r sick of his radical changes ...we dont want anymore of it or his fiscal lunacy...

Anonymous said...

I will vote for Chris Christi and I must say that I did not appreciate taht campaign ad about Christi's weight. I say ALL OVERWEIGHT ,CHUBBY,OBESE,AND FAT NEW JERSEY PEOPLE GET ANGRY AND GET OUT AND VOTE FOR CHRIS CHRISTI WHO NOT ONLY KNOWS POLITICAL ISSUES BUT ALSO UNDERSTANDS THE HUMAN CONDITION OF STRUGGLING WITH WEIGHT AND IT'S ALL OVER THE COUNTRY. I ALSO ASK INDEPENDENTS SET ON VOTING OR CHRISTI DON'T CHANGE YOUR MIND BECAUSE IT REMINDS ME OF TESTS IN SCHOOL THE FIRST CHOICE IN MULTIPLE QUESTIONS IS USUALLY THE CORRECT ANSWER. VOTE CHRIS CHRISTI WHO UNDEERSTANDS AND WHO GETS IT.

Anonymous said...

If Corzine loser's tomorrow - it's not against the big "O" - it's because Democrat's are tired of Corzine's lies.

Win or lose tomorrow - this is not a national Dem vs Rep thing - it's just NJ Dem's who got tired of the lies Corzine spreads.

Any party that things this is a national win will be spanked in 2010.

** The Rep's already have won, isn't it enough that Obama carried the state by 20% in 2009 and we are now "neck-n-neck"...

Anonymous said...

Give $9.12 to Hoffman & Christie - we are out there from across America taking back this great country !!!!

God Bless Us All

America isnt New Jersey! said...

NJ's an ugly, trashy state.
Corzine deserves to lose.
NJ needs "radical change," get with the program, clean itself up and join the rest of America!

Anonymous said...

Our individual votes are precious. We need to realize that unless there is an absolute need to do so we should never vote absentee. It gives corrupt election officials and politicians an opportunity to abuse our vote. There is a much greater chance our votes will be counted if we go to the polling sites where it's harder to hid devious tactics to defraud the people. New Jersey voters I hope you have a substantial turn out strategy. It seems Corzine like many big spending politicians just never seems to have enough of your money. Many people in the country hope a change in your state will be the start of change throughout the country. We hope the politicians on both sides that have betrayed our trust and our constitution will all see their last day in office come their next election. Good luck New Jersey.

Anonymous said...

Christie is the only way to go.I'm a democrat and i'm voting for Christie. Almost every democrat I know in my area is voting for Christie.

Anonymous said...

Corzine = Collossal FAIL.

That fat attack on Christie will kill him. As a Republican I am laughing at him though. I mean, come on, having a FAT ATTACK ad in a state where there's a lot of, let's just say, people who look like the cast of the Sopranos, specifically TONY & BIG PUSSY, and all those big girls and guys, well, you know.

Corzine is such an idiot. However this is indicative of things to come. There's another race here in California's 10th district that MIGHT go to the Repub too, and won't that be interesting if it does?

Anonymous said...

I sincerely hope that Christy's folks are wise to the political antics. Interesting that mail-in ballots were initiated and encouraged in a year when the incumbant was unpopular.. in another state, another year, the incumbant was stunned when the new guy was voted in... and I heard weeks later from security guards in the capital building that hundreds of bags of absentee ballots lay sitting in the basement, UNOPENED as the new guy celebrated his win... and even a recount didn't change it (well, the recount didn't include the absentee ballots either!)

i have no faith in the system now, and doubt every election winner. NJ among others have found ways to determine a winner which has nothing to do with the people's vote.

leppy67 said...

I'm a like long New Jersey resident, and all I can say is, Tom Kean, where have you gone? Corzine is a cancer for NJ, a billionaire who has no chance being able to relate to having to pay ridiculous reas estate taxes. I live in monmouth county and over the last 4 years, my property taxes have soared from $8,800 to just under $13,000. Corzine couldnt get out fast enough, I know he has a possy to drive him around, but I'd be more than willing to drive him to the airport after the election! Oh wait, I forgot he has his own plane, and helicopter....

And for all those who voted for Obama, all i can say is "are you happy now?"

So I hope Christie wins for 2 reasons, A) to get rid of Corzine once and for all, and B) it would be a nice slap in the face to Obama (kind of like what the Olympic committee did) :)

Anonymous said...

To anonymous about people being spanked in 2010 , No one is blaming Obama for your state's problems and they are huge;but Obama has campiagned and if you think he does not have any political agenda for that your going to get a big spanking not only today but in 2010,there is already a great grass movement shift by all angry Americans that are fed up with politics as usual. No one has said anything about Obama but if you think the President whom you do not see or hear behind those WH doors you are going to get more than spanked. People need to get knowledge on their own and learn about everything that is going on today. You need to fully understand the bills such as HR and it' like over a few thousand pages, you young need to know how it will affect you , the war, the high unemployment and than the WH comes out last Friday and says "We have stimulus victory" but if you really listen to knowledgable economists and talanted people you would know there is a lot of deception and who the hell is going to pay for all the trillions plus interests as China laughs in Tim's face. I say All AMericans that care and especially the young beginning their work careers GET KNOWLEDGE AND LEARN ON YOUR OWN RESEARACH THE FACATS, AND DON'T BE SO GULLIBLE WHEN THEY TELL YOU CRAP THAT COMMON SENSE WILL TUG AT YOUR HEART AND SAY HEY ,SOMETHING S WRONG HERE.

Anonymous said...

if corzine loses i don't think this billionaire screwball taht screwed up the garden state will need a job,and if things go as they are obama wil be a one term lame duck President. you wait and see. I voted for him but I have yet to see change that substantiates all the borrowing and spending that even one of his own dem people said the stimulus has basically done all it'sgoing to do and will have little affect in 2010. it was his appointee a woman and I can't think of her name but there she was telling us americans the truth.

Anonymous said...

CHRIS CHRISTI WILL BE NEW JERSEY'S GOVENOR IN ABOUT 12 HOURS AND THAN THE THE MOST FUN OF ALL HSI VICTORY PARTY.

Anonymous said...

the jerk that is republican and laughing at the fat attack,actually people can lose weight and the guy is handsome. he looks like he could kick wimpy aged bruce's ass. What is he 60 now and whatever happened to that Manmouth guy who accused Bruce of cheating on his wife. Brucee supports Corzine but knows nothing about politics except he likes to think he does just play your mucic Bruce or maybe you can go to college and learn something real about politics. It's celebrities like you ,Sean Penn, and others that think their acting skills aare going to change the world why they are hereathome beating the crap out of their wives Sean and Madonna and Robin WEright, Bruce the cheat and I can go on and on and on ,celebrities are not politically correct they are just A holes and that ugly Jeanne Garafolo on Keith Olberman what a crazy loon, to her all whites hate african americans you nut case Garafolo.

Brian Hurrel said...

I explained the choices in NJ's governor's race to my 7 year old son thusly:
"It's like Mommy asking you whether you want to eat moldy cheese or rotton eggs."
To which he replied, "Or apples with worms inside."
That's right, it's a 3-way race. Kid catches on quickly.
Basically, and sadly, it comes down to "Who is going to do the least damage."

lpcyusa said...

warning nj voters about chris christie

he supports harry j shortway in nj who has nazi group associations!!

read more here->>

http://sites.google.com/site/jillstarrsite/nj-detective-harry-shrotway-junior-dares-making-a-run-for-political-offices-in-vernon-nj

Anonymous said...

It's interesting to hear some folks talking about how CC hasn't said much about what he's going to do when elected. I just took a look at his web site & he lists 88 items that he wants to do. Yes, I wish some of them had more meat but there are plenty that are very specific. For example, he makes very clear that he is not going to make changes to current ees pension fund (the unions have been beating that 1 to death), that he's in favor of initiative & referendum and there are plenty more. John C had his chance & didn't deliver. Now George Norcross is going to kick out Dick Codey as Senate president so his puppet Steve Sweeney can get in. Great, if Corzine wins, Trenton will be run by a convicted south jersey power broker. God help NJ if that happens. Finally, you ought to see how much JC pays in property taxes for his double size condo on the river in Hoboken. I did & all I'll say is I wish I was only paying what he's paying in property taxes for my little place and no, mine is not on the river, on the beach or on a lot of property. Please John, just go away.

Anonymous said...

@lpcyusa:

The whole Democrat party is bought and paid for with dirty Nazi money from the mother of all Nazis, George Soros. He is Obama's master. He wants the utopian society and for the government to decide who lives or dies... which is why Obama MUST get his health care legislation passed.

So we don't care about your imaginary Nazi... LOL

Your party IS the New Nazi Party of Amerika.

MARY ANN said...

It's about 10:30 p.m. and the winner is CHRISCHRISTI FOR THE GARDEN STATE OF NEW JERSEY. CONGRATULATIONS CHRIS CHRISTI AND ALL NEW JERSEY PEOPLE. I KNEW HE WOULD DO IT. SINCERELY MARY ANN ROCHESTER N.Y. A GREAT NIGHT FRO CHRISTI AND ALL HIS SUPPORTERS.

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