Sunday, November 1, 2009

Hoffman leads big

Doug Hoffman has a commanding lead in the special election for New York's 23rd Congressional District.

In a three way contest with Democrat Bill Owens and Republican Dede Scozzafava Hoffman leads with 51% to 34% for Owens and 13% for Scozzafava. In a head to head contest with Owens Hoffman holds a 54-38 advantage.

Polling the race was a little haphazard in a weekend with many twists and turns but Hoffman showed a similar lead at all junctures. In interviews conducted before Scozzafava announced the suspension of her campaign Hoffman led Owens 49-31 with 17% going to Scozzafava. Poll respondents Saturday afternoon/evening and early Sunday afternoon were informed that Scozzafava had dropped out but that her name would still be on the ballot. During that period of time Hoffman led Owens 51-34 with Scozzafava's share going down to 12%. After Scozzafava announced she was endorsing Owens the remaining Sunday respondents were informed of that and the race showed a little tightening with Hoffman up 52-38 on Owens and Scozzafava's share dropping to 7%.

The bottom line though is that Hoffman led by double digits during every segment of the poll, an indication that he may have been headed for a definitive victory regardless of Scozzafava's actions over the course of the weekend.

Hoffman is leading Scozzafava 71-15 among Republicans with 12% going to Owens. Among Democrats Owens gets 67% to 21% for Hoffman and 10% for Scozzafava. Hoffman leads Owens 52-30 with independents.

One key finding that may have ultimately scuttled Scozzafava's candidacy: 59% of Republicans considered her to be a liberal and only 7% thought she was a conservative. By comparison 80% of them consider Hoffman to be a conservative, and that's a good thing where nearly two thirds of GOP voters define themselves that way.

Republican voters also appear to be considerably more energized about the election than Democrats. While Barack Obama won a narrow victory in NY-23 last year, those planning to vote in this race supported John McCain by a 51-43 margin. Obama's approval rating with likely voters is just 39%.

We will have much more on NY-23 over the next 24 hours.

Full results here

23 comments:

Ashen said...

Hi Tom. It's more exciting than the series game on tonight. "Go Hoffman" from beautiful Arizona.

Anonymous said...

These are very interesting figures. I'm wondering if the 39% Obama approval rating is completely accurate. I'm thinking it would be closer to 45%. Even so, that would still give Hoffman a lead of nearly 10 points -- pretty comfortable. Let's see how quickly RealClearPolitics puts this poll up on their marquee -- all of the ones up there now have become pretty irrelevant in light of all the events this weekend.

Anonymous said...

i will be interested to see if Republicans really do show out in large numbers like you are showing, or if it is the opposite like predicted by R2K and Siena as you noted in a prior post.

Anonymous said...

If these numbers hold up, we're looking at a rerun of 1994...

Anonymous said...

I have no doubt that Republicans and Conservatives are going to show up in huge numbers as they are so energized as seen in the town halls, tea parties, etc.

It appears that Democrats only chance in 2010 is to turn sharply right (i.e. Bill Clinton after 1994) which would bring independents back into the fold and make Republicans less negative... It is all up to President Obama...

Riley said...

Siena polls are a joke. At one point, they showed McCain winning NY by a comfortable margin.

AuntPittypat said...

I just want Hoffman to win by enough that there is no chance of a recount. With the full court press from the White House now for Owens, I expect funny ACORN antics to start in 5 . 4 . 3 . 2 . . .

David Schmidt said...

PPP...got to hand it too you...you are the only one with the latest polling data on this hot race and you were able to manage the events of the weekend well.

Anonymous said...

All these polls indicate superior GOP turnout in VA, NJ, & NY-23.

If it turns out that way, how will polling firms re-jigger their GOP sample sizes? After last November, they used exit polls as an excuse to use ridiculously small GOP samples, giving an edge and, in some cases, momentum to the Dems.

We'll see. My guess is they'll use the excuse that this trend occurred in too few states in "off year" elections. Anything to keep giving the Dems the advantage. (Nothing against PPP...I'm talking about polling firms in general)

Riley said...

Don't worry AuntP. The only ACORNS in this district are on the trees...

Attorney said...

hello tom ,this is good poll for everyone......

Deeb said...

This poll seems to undersample Democrats and the Obama approval numbers are nowhere near what Research 2000 and Siena have found.

We'll see, but I think it's tighter than this and by these numbers, Scozzafava's voters are more likely to break for Owens. Hoffman's already gotten most of what he can get from the moderate right.

Regardless, I think Hoffman wins. It's a red district.

But if Hoffman doesn't win by a 2-1 margin, the traditional margin in this district for a Republican, then he's underperformed the district and is showing the upper limits of a conservative even in a conservative area.

And if he wins, enjoy him while he lasts. He'll be without a district after the redistricting after the 2010 Census. It's a blue state, there are 3 Republicans left in Congress, New York will lose at least 2 seats. You do the math.

Deanna said...

I will be surprised if my fellow Republicans in that part of the country are so brainless as to vote for Hoffman actually. He is not even from that area and using it to his own advantage which tells anyone with a brain that he will continue to use the position, if he wins, to HIS own advantage.........

Craig said...

You are truly representative of the right wing today. You only have use for exaggeration. When you make things up it gives you a wonderful feeling. It reminds me of the hippies in the sixties. They were convinced there was going to be a revolution. What are you convinced of?

Anonymous said...

Deanna:

Re your post about Hoffmann "not even living in the district" ... you obviously don't, either.

If you did, you'd surely know that Hoffman, who was born in Saranac Lake and has lived his entire life in the area, lives a stone's throw from the district line. That's because the district boundary is the county line between Franklin and Essex counties. (Saranac Lake and Lake Placid are practically twin cities, five miles apart, and yet fall into different congressional districts because they are on either side of the county line.)

The district today has a grossly attenuated shape, but if you look at it and see where Hoffman is from, his home is actually closer to the geographic "center" of the district than where Owens lives (or Scozzafava for that matter).

Finally, BOTH Essex and Franklin counties were in the district for decades, but you can thank politically motivated gerrymandering by the pols in Albany for creating the latest crazy boundaries.

Bottom line, Hoffman is well ahead in the polling because his roots in the district are as firm as anyone could hope to have. Not only is he from Saranac Lake, his successful accounting business, which he built from the ground up, has several branch offices across the district. So, again, Hoffman is better known, better positioned, and more grounded in the District than his worthy opponent could ever hope to be.

Plus, he's a CPA. Lord knows we need more of them in Congress these days!

Anonymous said...

Oh please let Hoffman win. A win by a far right conservative in a conservative district would be a truly historic upset for Obama. Then the full court press can begin in moderate districts that have R reps. The R's can then claim their mantle of far right obscurity for a generation. Go Hoffman! Go Teabagger Armey!

J Baustian said...

Regarding the argument that if Hoffman does not win by 2:1 -- the "traditional" GOP victory margin in this district -- then it's a sign of weakness.

The margin of victory in open-seat races is almost always closer than when an incumbent is running. So this race should be compared to other open-seat races only.

Anonymous said...

Anon, Sorry to disappoint, but conservatives win GOP primaries in safe GOP seats and liberals win Dem primaries in safe Dem seats.

Any Dems running blue dogs in Berkeley? Didn't think so. And the sky ain't exactly falling here except on the clowns that handpicked Dede for NY-23. Spin away.

Anonymous said...

The fact that a Lake Placid resident is not in the same district as someone from Saranac Lake is a an indictment of the redistricting process. The segment of New York State above Syracuse-Albany that contains the Adirondack park and 700,000 citizens should be one congressional district. Of course that raises the other issue of congressional apportionment. The census should include all residents - legal and illegal. Apportionment should be based on the number of citizens in a state.

There are some uninformed folks who confuse teabaggers with Tea Partiers. Tea Partiers advocate limited government and the restoration of curtailed liberties.
Teabaggers tend to be more prevalent in San Francisco (doing what ever teabaggers do)

Anonymous said...

Wow- what are all you crazy people going to say when Owens wins?

Max Power said...

Beck Loses! Palin Loses! Pawlenty Loses! Dick Armey's Lunatic Teabaggers Lose!

Owens wins! OMG, 2010 will be 1994 all over again! NOT!

Max Power said...

OMG! Palin Loses! Beck Loses! Pawlenty Loses! Dick Armey's Teabagging fringe loses!

Owens wins! Thanks teabagging nutjobs!

Anonymous said...

LOL, you right-wing whack-jobs. Keep up the good work.

 
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