Friday, November 13, 2009

Looking at Arkansas-2

We're going to be releasing polling looking at both the House race and the Senate race in Arkansas-2 next week.

That leads to an obvious question: why AR-2?

It's a district where there hasn't been a real strong challenge to Democratic Congressman Vic Snyder in a while. But it also voted for John McCain by a good margin last year, and unlike many Dems in districts as conservative as Snyder's, he voted for the health care bill in the House last weekend. So his district is a good test case of whether the political climate for Democrats is so bad right now that incumbents in McCain districts are vulnerable next year even if they haven't had a tough fight in a really long time.

Here are some of the findings from the poll:

-55% of voters in the district are opposed to the health care bill passed Saturday night with 32% in support.

-Voters in the district, like voters everywhere, hate both Congressional Democrats and Congressional Republicans. For Dems the favorability breakdown is 36/54 and for the GOP it's not much better at 32/48.

-50% of voters in the district think Congressional Democrats are too liberal...but 39% also think that Congressional Republicans are too conservative.

What does it all add up to for Snyder's vulnerability? Stay tuned- we should have the numbers on him out either Sunday night or Monday

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

My guess would be that Congressman Vic Snyder is down 8 points to a generic Republican. People in Little Rock are not too happy with him right now. This is based on any of his town hall meetings, folks are upset.

Anonymous said...

The people who are upset are the people who wouldn't vote for him anyway. It wasn't independent voters at those town hall meetings; many of the hardcore teabagger protesters were from outside the district.

As with Blanche Lincoln, the real worry is the Democratic base staying home come election day.

The people on the street I talked to here in Little Rock during that time were more disappointed in his lack of passion for the public option than anything.

Anonymous said...

Did you poll griffin (the likely republican nominee)

Anonymous said...

Griffin??? Are you kidding me? He has more baggage than Delta! This guy cannot win against Snyder on his best day. I hope he is not all the conservatives in Arkansas have. U.S. Attorney scandal, Florida vote-caging, Rove's hatchet-man, Washington insider-lawyer, more same old bush dirt and on and on. The Dems will have open season on him!

Jean said...

I live in the state, the every day Joe and Jane is very upset at both Snyder and Berry not to mention Lincoln. There are no less that 7 GOP Candidates who have declared and probably 2 Dems.
Snyder AR-2 has already drawn 3 opposition candidates with one in particular running extremely strong with the grassroots population. Snyder's strength with special interest groups is already being challenged. The overall attitude is "fire the traitors" Arkansas ppl have long memories and this will transfer into action at the polls.

 
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