Sunday, November 1, 2009

More NY-23 mess

Man NY-23 is really a mess.

Here are some interesting facts from our unweighted numbers so far:

-In a three way contest Doug Hoffman leads Bill Owens by 19 points. In a two way contest Hoffman leads Owens by 15 points. So the Dede Scozzafava withdrawal and endorsement will probably tighten the race some but not nearly enough.

-58% of Republicans think that Scozzafava's a liberal and that was obviously before her endorsement today.

-The Rush Limbaugh effect- Hoffman has a 79 point lead with Rush listeners while Owens has a 6 point lead with people who don't listen to the show.

I am going to swap in a third version of our horse race question for remaining interviews today noting that Scozzafava has suspended her campaign and endorsed Owens. The Hoffman lead is wide enough that I feel comfortable releasing numbers later this evening although there will certainly be a lot of caveats- and we will certainly release tabs by when people were interviewed.

23 comments:

David said...

Thanks for letting us know all the details.

Polling is very accurate these days as long as people understand the factors and the poll is weighted correctly.

We appreciate it.

DavidNYC said...

How do you account for the fact that your numbers are so different from Siena's and R2K's? Just a monstrous Dede collapse that all went to Hoffman in the very brief time since those two outfits finished their calls?

AuntPittypat said...

I sure feel for you, Tom. Hang in there!

mikelow1885 said...

So far your partial polling hasn't had any effect on Intrade. Hoffman is down to 43.5 right now.

We'll see if Dede's endorsement has any impact. It shouldn't, but it appears Hoffman may not have responded very well.

Bigvinu said...

Is Dede's dropping out altering your weighting significantly? The electorate changes when Dede's former supporters decide not to go to the polls.

Frank said...

re: DavidNYC's comment - what does account for this change. It seems odd that Owens +1 in two separate polls would go to Hoffman +16 without some huge extraneous event, even before Scozzafava withdrew.

6p010535903368970b said...

I think the difference in methodology is affecting the results. Live interview polls show it close, the IVR poll show Hoffman way up.

I don't think this is a good district to rely on the IVR method, Cook's IVR polls of NY-20 in 2006 were not good, they showed Gillibrand up 11-13 points before the Sweeney domestic violence incident. So Siena and R2K may be more on target.

Anonymous said...

"so different from Siena's and R2K's"

Do they really look different than expected if the trends are the same (extending Hoffman's upward trends of the previous Siena polls) ?

Anonymous said...

It appears that Tom and Rick Shaftan are in agreement about the NY-23 race:

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/10/conservative-pollster-puts-hoffman-ahead-in-ny-23.php

"Neighborhood Research head Rick Shaftan told TPM: "She's [Scozzafava] going to end up in single digits and Hoffman is going to top 50%."

6p010535903368970b said...

Anon. there hasn't been enough time between polls for trends to account for the difference. Siena concluded the day before or same day PPP began. That isn't enough time for that much of a shift.

How come my name keeps coming up as a long cumbersome number? Weird!

congressworksforus said...

I'm with Anonymous -- I think these numbers just show an extension of the trend that was already clearly occurring.

Of course, these are unweighted numbers. That might be worth mentioning again.

For what its worth, I don't think Scozza's endorsement will do anything other than solidify the conservative majority to support Hoffman; after all, she just proved she's a liberal which is what she's spent the last month trying to say she isn't.

livfreeordi said...

Want to know why Hoffman is picking up a lot of Dede's voters?

I also posted this on my local paper website-- the Watertown Daily Times --

All Scozzafava's endorsement of the Democrat proves..to my chagrin and embarrassment...

..is that when Hoffman and his supporters called her a RINO..they were right all along.

I'm sure that will give many of my fellow moderate loyal Republicans... who also supported Scozzafava.. something to think about on election day.

You fooled me once Dede..not again

Huskers-For-Palin said...

The biggest losers...the RNC establishment (Steele, Newt).


NEWT...WHAT WERE YOU THINKING!!!!

Ryan Mauro said...

Interesting. I bet Hoffman by 5.

LonewackoDotCom said...

Here's a good question for PPP to ask: "Would you continue to support Doug Hoffman knowing that his immigration position appears to be somewhat similar to that of George W. Bush's?"

Anonymous said...

Yesterday when chubby Dede dropped out she was a proud Republican. Today she receives a call from the White House and then endorses a lib. This is an amateur and a vote that could not be counted on. She will never be heard from again. My only question is, why did it take so long.

Anonymous said...

How about

"Would you continue to support Doug Hoffman knowing that his immigration position appears to be somewhat similar to that of George W. Bush, John McCain, and Ted Kennedy?"

Anonymous said...

"So far your partial polling hasn't had any effect on Intrade. Hoffman is down to 43.5 right now."

Hoffman last traded at 67, and the figure hasn't changed much today, so I'm pretty sure you're pulling that figure out of your a$$.

chg said...

Lonewacko, your proposed question is about as bad as it gets. You should apply for a position with the NYT.

If you truly care to know the electorate's opinion on any stated position, 'How do you feel about Hoffman's stated position X?', where X is a brief, neutral summary of the position is the only way for any responsible pollster to go.

Reaganite Republican said...

Sour grapes? a RINO skinned? Or did Joey Plugs open up the ol' company checkbook and make a Specter-style bargain for Scozzafava, in order to save the Dear Leader from a humiliation in this high profile contest?

All I know is something stinks like trash-truck juice here...

Moremony services said...

hello ,Yesterday when chubby Dede dropped out she was a proud Republican. Today she receives a call from the White House and then endorses a lib. This is an amateur and a vote that could not be counted on. She will never be heard from again. My only question is, why did it take so long.



attorney

Moremony

Anonymous said...

"So the Dede Scozzafava withdrawal and endorsement will probably tighten the race some but not nearly enough."

Not nearly enough for what? Are you a polling group or a political one?

Anonymous said...

Better stick to the day job. You're off by 19% in your poll.

 
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