Tuesday, November 3, 2009

NY-23 Republicans

One of the groups of voters that's gotten the most attention this cycle is the Republicans in NY-23. Here are some of our findings about them:

-First off they have a very dim view of Congressional Republicans- 43% view them unfavorably to just 37% having a positive opinion of them. That is one of two key stats that shows how this district was a good place for a grassroots revolt against party leaders.

-The other key point is that 37% of them think the GOP wing in Congress is too liberal. That's a pretty strong starting point for a conservative insurgency.

-In a two way contest between Doug Hoffman and Dede Scozzafava they would have gone 71-24 for Hoffman. That's why I think this contest has mixed relevance for next year. If there had just been a primary Hoffman would have won easily and it would have been a perfectly run of the mill Congressional race. So while this race may be a sign that moderate incumbent Republicans could have something to worry about next year in primaries, I don't think it's an indication that we're going to see a lot of races with third party conservative spoilers- Scozzafava's nomination in the first place was just a fluke of the New York special election system.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

I think Poll on Dems must have been worst than GOP or you would have posted it, too.

James A. Donald said...

There are a remarkably large number of republican incumbents that would never be nominated in an honest primary - there are a remarkably large number of "flukes" that for some exceedingly complicated and never clearly explained reason produce a nominee that is so left wing that Republicans are uncomfortable with him. If each such "fluke" leads to a third party candidacy in 2010, we are going to see a great many three candidate elections in 2010.

Anonymous said...

Who'd you morons poll?
Hoffman's relatives?
I could do better with a dart board.

Anonymous said...

Yeah, what went wrong with your results?

Anonymous said...

Great, you guys lost me $500 on Intrade. I guess you get what you pay for!

 
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