Sunday, November 1, 2009

NY-23

Why are your numbers in NY-23 so different from Siena and Research 2000?

We're getting a lot of that today.

Two main reasons:

-We find, and were finding even before the Scozzafava dropout, that Hoffman has a much bigger lead with Republicans than those polls were showing. Research 2000 had Hoffman leading 41-34 with GOP voters. Siena had it at 50-29. We find it at 66-17 so far.

-We are anticipating a much more GOP friendly electorate than the other two polls. Siena found Obama's favorability in the district at 59%. Research 2000 had it at 50%. So far we find Obama's approval rating with likely voters at 39%. We're finding an electorate that voted 50-43 for John McCain in comparison to last fall's narrow Obama victory in the district. That drop off in Democratic voters is consistent with what we're finding in much of our 2009 polling but obviously we won't know if we were right or not until Tuesday.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Makes sense to me...Very consistent with what Rasmussen is claiming for the governorship elsections of Virginia and New Jersey...

6p010535903368970b said...

I think it will be conventional polling vs. automated, and while automated has fared as well or better in lots of polls, I wouldn't venture it to be a better method for either a densely urban or sparsely rural district.

I say R2K and Siena are closer to the truth, but even then, Hoffman could win narrowly. I would like to see if anyone leaks internals tonight or tomorrow, that could be very telling.

StevenInBrooklynNY said...

Ever thought of polling the somewhat obvious, but interesting question: if you knew what you know now about President Obama, and the actions of Congress, how would you have voted last November?

PoliPundit said...

Just wanted to tell you: My thousands of readers, and I, find your polling very useful. You're the only person polling in NY-23 right now, and whatever data you provide is all we have to chew on.

In such an unsettled race, there's no way to know exactly which pollster is right. Just follow your methodology, and let the chips fall where they may.

Thanks for continuing to poll.

Bluejoy said...

This one is going to embarrass you Tom. Owens by 5.

Ozwitch said...

You'll be able to tell how close it is on Tuesday by the number of purple shirts, New Black Panthers, Acorn nuts and other Dem goons who show up to intimidate and commit voter fraud.

If they're not there in large numbers, then Hoffman's won already.

 
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