Why are your numbers in NY-23 so different from Siena and Research 2000?
We're getting a lot of that today.
Two main reasons:
-We find, and were finding even before the Scozzafava dropout, that Hoffman has a much bigger lead with Republicans than those polls were showing. Research 2000 had Hoffman leading 41-34 with GOP voters. Siena had it at 50-29. We find it at 66-17 so far.
-We are anticipating a much more GOP friendly electorate than the other two polls. Siena found Obama's favorability in the district at 59%. Research 2000 had it at 50%. So far we find Obama's approval rating with likely voters at 39%. We're finding an electorate that voted 50-43 for John McCain in comparison to last fall's narrow Obama victory in the district. That drop off in Democratic voters is consistent with what we're finding in much of our 2009 polling but obviously we won't know if we were right or not until Tuesday.
skip to main |
skip to sidebar
The Wall Street Journal ranked PPP as one of the top swing state pollsters in the country last year. (11-6-08 WSJ)
Wall Street Journal Swing State Polls Chart
The Wall Street Journal ranked PPP as one of the top swing state pollsters in the country last year. (11-6-08 WSJ)
Hire Us
PPP offers the highest quality polling at the most affordable price of any company out there.
Contact Tom Jensen at tomj@publicpolicypolling.com or 919-744-6312 to discuss your project.
Contact Tom Jensen at tomj@publicpolicypolling.com or 919-744-6312 to discuss your project.
Contact Us
Blog Archive
-
▼
2009
(903)
-
▼
November
(76)
- Taking suggestions on two things
- Why Harry Reid's position may not be quite as bad ...
- GOP keeping up advantage with independents
- Wisconsin a tossup
- Vote on where we poll next week
- Undecideds in NC
- Looking at the 2010 Senate picture
- The Possible Palin Mistake
- Wisconsin Notes
- Where Obama's really dropping
- The Romney Conundrum
- Obama struggling in Wisconsin
- Feingold looks solid
- Republicans and Reagan
- Romney's Drop
- Corruption in NC
- Health Care and 2010
- Sunday Morning Roundup
- NC Democrats' Senior Problem
- Looking back on Missouri's Governors
- Monthly 2012 Numbers
- Missouri Approvals
- ACORN
- Deep Divisions on Obama
- Purgason's Hope
- Looking at NC Republicans
- Close in North Carolina
- Lincoln Trouble
- Tight in Missouri
- Republicans and 2012
- Missouri Preview
- Lincoln's Tough Position
- Snyder in trouble
- Perdue back up to 30
- Some twists in Congressional favorability
- Etheridge
- Looking at Arkansas-2
- Obama on the rise in North Carolina
- Looking toward 2010
- Some good news for Dems from Civitas
- Digging Deeper on Independents
- Same old, same old on NC-Senate
- GOP disunity overblown?
- Vote!
- Mixed messages on McCrory
- Some key words in the Cunningham non-candidacy letter
- Some bad news for Democrats
- GOP controlled by conservatives everywhere
- Taking suggestions
- Tough future for Snowe as a Republican
- It's early but Booker looks good
- Some interesting health care numbers
- Vote on where we poll
- Obama and 2009
- Moving Forward
- Unbelievable
- Some closing thoughts on Virginia turnout
- Reviewing New Jersey
- Deeds' biggest mistake
- Good election for IVR
- The 2009 race in North Carolina
- Weird Night for PPP
- NY-23 Republicans
- Palin has bad numbers in NY-23
- Obama and today's elections
- GOP unity, support from independents key today
- Lassiter takes small lead
- Chapel Hill too close to call
- Chapel Hill and Charlotte...
- Republicans headed for a Virginia sweep
- Marriage still close in Maine
- Christie leads
- Hoffman leads big
- Tonight's Poll Schedule
- NY-23
- More NY-23 mess
-
▼
November
(76)
Questions or Comments?
6 comments:
Makes sense to me...Very consistent with what Rasmussen is claiming for the governorship elsections of Virginia and New Jersey...
I think it will be conventional polling vs. automated, and while automated has fared as well or better in lots of polls, I wouldn't venture it to be a better method for either a densely urban or sparsely rural district.
I say R2K and Siena are closer to the truth, but even then, Hoffman could win narrowly. I would like to see if anyone leaks internals tonight or tomorrow, that could be very telling.
Ever thought of polling the somewhat obvious, but interesting question: if you knew what you know now about President Obama, and the actions of Congress, how would you have voted last November?
Just wanted to tell you: My thousands of readers, and I, find your polling very useful. You're the only person polling in NY-23 right now, and whatever data you provide is all we have to chew on.
In such an unsettled race, there's no way to know exactly which pollster is right. Just follow your methodology, and let the chips fall where they may.
Thanks for continuing to poll.
This one is going to embarrass you Tom. Owens by 5.
You'll be able to tell how close it is on Tuesday by the number of purple shirts, New Black Panthers, Acorn nuts and other Dem goons who show up to intimidate and commit voter fraud.
If they're not there in large numbers, then Hoffman's won already.
Post a Comment