Last year Republicans didn't even bother to run a candidate against Democratic Congressman Vic Snyder in Arkansas. Now with the political climate turning in the wrong direction for Democrats nationally, and particularly in the Natural State, it looks like he may be in for the toughest fight of his career to get reelected next year.
Snyder's approval rating is now 42%, with 46% of voters in the district disapproving of him. He's at a solid 75% in his own party but with independents the spread is 30/56 and with Republicans it's just 12/75.
A lot of Snyder's issues can probably be traced to overall feelings about his party. 54% of voters in the district disapprove of the job Congressional Democrats are doing, 52% disapprove of Barack Obama's job performance, and 50% express the feeling that Congressional Democrats are too liberal. Additionally 55% of voters say they're opposed to the health care bill the House passed last week with Snyder's support, including 91% of Republicans and 67% of independents. Snyder seems to be bearing the brunt of a lot of animosity toward national Democrats in his district.
The practical implication of all this is that the district looks like a toss up for next year. In possible 2010 match ups Snyder leads Tim Griffin 44-43, Scott Wallace 44-42, and David Meeks 45-42. Those close margins come despite the fact that none of the Republican candidates are well known- 67% of voters have no opinion about Griffin, 75% say the same of Wallace, and 78% are ambivalent toward Meeks.
The Republicans hold leads of 13-15 points among independent voters, continuing a trend being seen across the country this year that was particularly important in giving the GOP victories in races for Governor of New Jersey and Virginia.
Certainly a lot can change between now and next November, and Snyder has shown resilience in bad election years for Democrats in the past. But we polled Arkansas-2 because we thought it would be a good test case for whether the political climate is so bad for Dems right now that districts that haven't been in the top tier of competitiveness for years might be in play, and it looks like the answer is yes. We also intend to poll Rick Boucher's district in SW Virginia sometime between now and Christmas to see if a similar situation exists there.
Full results here
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6 comments:
This is interesting, but it seems to me that if you want a "representative" sample, you should look at a district outside of the rural south too. Something in Pennsylvania or Ohio, for example.
Snyder is in trouble in AR-2.. the behind the scenes, a silent majority of Arkansawers are very disgruntled with both Snyder and Berry.. indications are a lot of hard core Dems are silently supporting a GOP candidate including a family member of the Late Sen John L. McClellan has actively committed to work with the David Meeks campaign staff as a Veteran Coalition Coordinator.. She states "this election is to critical for the American citizen to stand by watching, our country, the basis of our democracy, as we know it, is in peril."
AR-2...rural South??? Andgarden, AR-2 is the district made up of Little Rock. Granted it is not Chicago or Denver, but generally speaking it has gone the way of the non-coastal CDs. It went for Clinton twice, Gore, Bush twice, then McCain. So, it is a district that Dems have to maintain to keep a majority; and, it has only been represented once (1978 to 1984) by a Republican since Reconstruction.
this comment shows your ignorance of the natural state,.. AR 2 consists of 8 counties not just Pulaski which is the county of Little Rock. This is a state of dispersed population we do not aggregate in large communities.. beside Pulaski, AR2 is Saline, County Seat Benton, bedroom for LR, White, county seat, Searcy, another BR for LR,.. Faulkner, county seat, Conway another BR for LR, Yell, 2 county seats, Danville & Dardenelle which either have their own industry and small business or some people drive to Russellville or even to LR over 60 miles away on a daily basis, Perry, county seat Perryville also stands as a BR area for LR or larger communities of Morrillton or Conway which is in either direction, Conway, county seat, Morrillton, this counties populations does the same as surrounding counties supplying a labor force either locally or to both Conway and LR,.. Van Buren, county seat Clinton, this area is a BR for both Conway and LR.. most of the daily population you find in Metro LR DOES NOT live directly in LR. many people will drive 60-70 mi one way to work EVERYDAY but choose to live not in LR because of the quality of life they have. There is more to Arkansas then the State Capital, Little Rock.
It would seem to me that you do not have any understanding rurban life let alone rural living which most persons in Arkansas fully appreciate. You also show your lack of understanding of the Arkansas values of principal and ethics. I AM a 4th gen. Arkansawyer with deep roots in this state, yes, I may be a bit partial but I have not just lived in this state. being military and having to find work, I have been to and lived in many places including outside of conus. Come live in Arkansas for a while and you will find a very different way of life. This is why I have always returned "home"
Being a registered Democrat I hope Scott Wallace will be the one running against Snyder. New face!!!!!!!!!
There is one problem with Scott Walace, he only came into the race because of Time Griffin, the Karl Rove clone, I do not believe his motives are altruistic but based in detraction or personal reasons, he has tried to run for several other different political openings with the same result every time. He has already committed a couple of Faux pas and we have not even gotten into the heat of the primary.. suggest you not look at the candidate not as a personality but for what he is standing for and whether he or she will stand true to their principals, representing not their personal interests but those of the State of Arkansas and the District.
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