Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Tough future for Snowe as a Republican

It looks like Olympia Snowe could have a pretty hard time getting nominated for another term in the Senate as a Republican.

There are now more folks in her party who disapprove than approve of Snowe's job performance. 46% of GOP voters think she's doing a bad job to 40% who give her good marks.

Snowe is still pretty popular with the liberal/moderate wing of her party, earning a 64% approval rating from them. But even in Maine 68% of Republicans are conservatives and they give her just a 29% approval rating with a 56% majority disapproving of her.

Asked how they would vote in a primary contest between Snowe and a more conservative challenger, just 31% of likely Republican voters say they would pick Snowe while 59% say they would go for the conservative alternative.

Obviously 2012 is a long ways away. Snowe could get herself back into the good graces of the Republican electorate, or a conservative challenge could fail to materialize. But given the recent successes of the Club for Growth, at least within the sphere of GOP voters, Snowe seems a pretty likely target.

Snowe's overall popularity is still decent, with 51% of voters approving of her to 36% disapproving. That owes to a 60% approval rating with Democrats and a 51% mark with independents. Even her pretty good marks with Democrats speak to the perils of moderation though- she's down from a 70% approval rating with them three weeks ago. It may be that while her actions on health care have proven to be too much for Republicans, they're not enough for some segment of the Democratic electorate.

Ultimately Snowe's future political survival may have to come as an independent- winning either party's primary could be a challenge. And the good news for her is that Maine has been unusually hospitable toward independent candidates, so it's not beyond the realm of possibility.

Full results here

17 comments:

vp said...

Time for Snowe to do a Specter?

Stephen said...

The people of Maine love Olympia and Susan. The idea that a conservative candidate like Toomey, Hoffman or Rubio could come in and usurp Snowe's Republican nomination is ludicrous. And No, She isn't going to switch parties. The Dem's love her because she is pragmatic and votes for the state, not a party, and the Repubs love her because she has that 'R' next to her name.
If Olympia and Susan didn't exist, there wouldn't be a GOP in ME.

paul a'barge said...

Poll Texas on the Perry / Hutchison race for governor.

Anonymous said...

I live in Maine. I had supported Snowe until she crossed the line and supported the illegal and immoral health care bill. I'll never vote for another RINO, and I can assure you that those Republicans I know (and there are quite a few) have no intention of supporting her for reelection under any circumstance.

Time for Snowe to go away, along with Collins. No more RINOS. Ever. If the GOP runs a RINO for any office, I'll with hold my vote. I'd rather have a genuine leftist in the office than a back-stabbing snake like Snowe or Collins.

AW1 Tim

Anonymous said...

Still... shockingly good poll numbers if you ask me.

A shame.

Anonymous said...

Please Olympia, stop lying about your party.

Switch now!

The Democrat/lib moochers and looters of Maine want to steal the earnings of their fellow Americans, and it is a crime that a so-called Republican is willing to help them.

Join the UnAmerican Democrat Party...I beg of you.

Anonymous said...

If Olympia votes like a democrat, who cares if she has a R next to her name? She may as well switch parties and be honest about it.

Keyboard Jockey said...

I think it's misleading to call yourself a Republican, and take in money from CONSERVATIVES who believe that the Republican candidate shares their ideology. They get campaign contributions from Conservatives. If Snowe and Collins want to run as Liberals let them do it under the Democrat brand and get their campaign contributions from Liberals Democrats, Independents or Republicans. It's like (Truth In Advertising) Either you share the Republican platform - ideology or you don't. So what if Senators from Maine are Democrats not Republicans, it would be closer to honest representation if Snowe, and Collins ran as Liberal or Moderate Democrats. and folks gave to their campaign coffers knowing where their allegiances really lie...Like Arlen Specter - Politician not Statesmen. This is why there should be term limits so AMERICANS don't end up with career politicians.

Anonymous said...

Maine likes its moderates. The only way to beat Snowe is in a Republican primary and even if that happens she could still win an election as an independant.

Anonymous said...

This has been a problem for years now in the Republican party. I don't want to buy into any conspiracy theories but how in the heck are all these RINO's and Scozzy's having R's after their names? Seems to me the enemy is among us. I say throw Snowe out and get a conservative to run as the Republican. If he/she loses they lose but at least the R will have been earned. At this point whether or not their is an R after her name is irrelevant. She is in all essentials a Dem. I say you can judge a person by their actions. If it votes and acts like a Dem, it's a Dem.

Toby said...

I wrote an email to our illustrious Senator Snowe after she voted on the Health Fiasco. I told her that she just lost two votes in this household. She did not reply. Heh.

Mike said...

I know why you think that VP, but maybe seeing the comments from conservatives here will convince you that she SHOULD switch parties. She absolutely will lose a primary to a more conservative candidate if she stays. This isn't Nixon's, or even Reagan's or Bush Sr.'s GOP. There is a movement in that party that will live and die by ideological purity, and they'll happily take Snowe down even if it means losing the seat. Those GOP numbers? A primary campaign where she gets hammered on her stimulus vote and healthcare negotiations will make those numbers worse, not better, for her. She'll get crushed in a primary, just like Scozzafava did and Specter would have. Her best bet is to jump ship, and do so sooner rather than later so she has time to build credibility among Dems before 2012.

Anonymous said...

I am one person in Maine that will vote for whoever runs against Ms. Snowe. If she wins the primary it will be the first time I have voted for a democrat in my life.

Clare said...

Are you nuts? Do you have any idea what her winning percentages have been? She's represented Maine both in the House and the Senate - for over 30 years.
Maine is a pretty small state and does well to have someone with some seniority in the Senate.
People in Maine really like her! They really liked George Mitchell before her - and voted for him in large percentages as well. We tend to vote for competence.
This isn't a particularly knee-jerk state.

grinder said...

As a Democrat, this is good news. Score one more seat for our side.

grinder said...

By the way, I don't want the Democrats to welcome Snowe into the party. That will only saddle us with another Joe Lieberman. If Snowe can't navigate her own waters, that's her problem. Run a strong Democrat in that race, and take advantage of the Republican civil war.

Fred Propheter said...

Snowe, Collins, Graham, Cornyn, what the hell is the difference? They have all sold out the Republican party at one time or another.....Lets not forget Mushmouth McCain

 
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