Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Vote!

Voting is now open for who we should include with Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, and Mitt Romney on our next 2012 poll.

The choices are Rudy Giuliani, Rush Limbaugh, George Pataki, Ron Paul, and John Thune.

Thanks for all the good suggestions. I didn't put Jeb Bush, Newt Gingrich, or Tim Pawlenty on there simply because they'd been included in recent polls and we're trying to test a wider variety of candidates. You can vote until Friday morning at 10 AM and the poll will be out toward the end of next week.

14 comments:

Anonymous said...

I'm rather curious as to who will win the poll if both the Ron Paul supporters and the Limbaughlites find it. I'm guessing for Paul by a decent margin - Limbaugh doesn't have quite as large of a presence online.

Buck6627 said...

Don't understand how a very viable candidate like Pawlenty is not a mainstay in any poll of GOP primary. Rudy, Pataki & Limbaugh are non-starters. Why not include Glenn Beck and Olympia Snowe?Pawlenty (and even Jindal) make loads more sense than any of those three. Frankly, I'd not be surprised to see Pawlenty as the nominee in '12. He needs to be included in every poll.

Anonymous said...

You have shown what a bunch of clueless Democrats PPP is by your selection of names here. Any Republican can tell you Giuliani, Pataki or any other candidate from New York has no chance in a Republican primary - nor does the isloationist Ron Paul. Why waste your time polling them. As for Limbaugh are you just after a cheap laugh?

If your serious about identifying a second tier of candidates who might have a chance of moving into the top tier, go to Intrade's list of Republican candidates:

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/index.jsp?clsID=19&grpID=8628

People trading on this exchange generally are Republican who have a pretty good knowledge of Republican politics. The current ranking is:

Romney 33.0
Palin 25.8
Pawlenty 22.5
Huckabee 17.0
Thune 15.0
Gingrich 10.0
Barbour 10.0
Petraeus 8.0
Jindal 7.6

All the other candidates are at 5.0 or less.

So other than the top 3 (Romney, Palin & Huckabee) the second tier consists of: Pawlenty, Thune, Gingrich, Barbour, Petraeus and Jindal.

Gingrich has probably irreparably damaged himself with the base after NY - 23, so you can forget him. We don't even know if Petraeus is a Republican, so we can eliminate him for now. Jindal is unlikely to run in the 2012 primaries if he choses to run for reelection in La, in 2011.

That leaves Pawlenty, Thune and Barbour. Since you have already polled Pawlenty, you should concentrate on Barbour and Thune. Since Thune has little name recognition, Barbour is the most likely candidate who can break into the top tier of candidates. As former RNC Chair he also will have a lot of establishment support if he can gain some traction.

Brandon K said...

Looks like the Pauliacs have gotten a hold of your poll. Very disappointing.

Jeff said...

Will you be polling the Republican primary? If so Paul would be interesting to include if only to see how libertarian the GOP really has become.

Glen Bradley said...

Actually Brandon, we didn't find it until about 30 minutes ago, around 8PM on Wednesday. So that 30+ point lead was just based on people who stumbled across it. Mind you, I shared a story from PPP on my Facebook feed, and I have some 800 Pauler friends, so it'll probably blow up now.

Glen Bradley said...

Truth be told, Anonymous, the description of Ron Paul as "isolationist" is a canard, as his platform was to be far more engaging of the world than either McCain or Obama, The difference is he wanted to engage with trade and diplomacy rather than depleted uranium...

So the real test, if Ron Paul makes it past a 2012 primary, will be to shake off the bevy of misrepresentations he acquired in 2008.

Ron Paul is a strict Constitutionalist. Constitutionalism has a rich history in both the Democratic AND the Republican parties, and therefore can find broad bipartisan appeal amongst the general electorate, while the establishment in both parties also try to marginalize the Constitutionalists in both their own and the other party.

The trick, again, will be to try and shed the mischaracterizations and misrepresentations of his platform that were vigorously applied to him in 2008. If we can overcome that, and properly demonstrate that he is a Constitutionalist, then he will gain overwhelming support.

If, on the other hand, we are unable to shed the outright false smears (like the notion that he is an isolationist) then of course he will not gain such overwhelming support.

Matt said...

Pawlenty is clearly thinking about running, he's the first candidate to go to NH, and he's more likely to run then Palin. Leaving him out of the poll makes no sense at all.

geekmom said...

rush has always said he doesn't want to run. ron paul is a great candidate, but his ideas--although very good--would need weaning of the pork suckers. i don't know much about the others. about anonymous - i wouldn't even put newt on the list after the cap & trade commercial with pelosi. SICK

Anonymous said...

Where's Mike Pence?!?!?!?

MouseWife said...

My vote is NOTA.
How about Joe Scarborough? Solid conservative voting record and a federalist on the social issues. He's the perfect candidate as far as I'm concerned.

Anonymous said...

Who ended up being on this poll?
Are the results still going to be released this week?

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