Monday, September 8, 2008

Michigan President/Senate

Barack Obama 47
John McCain 46

Riding a wave of momentum from the Republican convention and the selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate, John McCain has pulled to within a point of Barack Obama in Michigan.

The movement in McCain's direction is coming largely from whites and men. He has moved his lead from 10 points in the last poll to 16 among white voters, and has turned a four point deficit among male voters into a three point advantage.

The Palin selection is a much bigger hit than the Biden one with Michigan voters. 45% of respondents say her choice makes them more likely to vote for McCain while just 30% say having Joe Biden on the ticket makes them more likely to support Obama. While Palin's popularity largely results from increased enthusiasm among the Republican base, she has also helped move the vote among independents into a dead heat after Obama had a four point lead with them last month.

A more detailed look at how Palin is shaping the race in Michigan here.

The big question here is whether this tightening of the race is merely a convention bounce or a permanent change of the landscape in Michigan. If it's the latter, Barack Obama is in trouble. But it will take a few weeks to really find out.

Carl Levin 51
Jack Hoogendyk 36

This is the closest any poll has shown the Michigan Senate contest, but that's more likely the product of Republican momentum overall than anything actually happening in the race. If this is as close as Hoogendyk can get even under these circumstances then Levin has nothing to worry about.

Full results here.


Anonymous said...

Well the muslim finally quit lying about his so called religion, lets sit back and watch his numbers slide!

Anonymous said...

There's no way that McCain will get Michigan.

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