Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Provincialism and the Governor's Race

I've never thought there was a Charlotte curse. But for Pat McCrory being from Charlotte may even be a blessing.

The reason? An analysis of how Bev Perdue, Kay Hagan, and McCrory are doing in their home regions relative to their party's counterpart in the other major statewide race shows that Charlotte voters are the most provincial in the state:




NE North Carolina

Hagan +5

Perdue +18


Dole +1

Perdue +2



McCrory +18

McCrory is running 18 points ahead of Elizabeth Dole on his home base (I guess you could argue it's her region too but I don't think she's really strongly associated with it the way the other three candidates are with theirs.) By comparison Bev Perdue is only running 13 points ahead of Hagan in her regional area of strength, and at least in this poll Hagan is actually running three points behind Perdue in the Triad even as she runs four points ahead of her statewide.

Charlotte area voters, more than those in any other part of the state, are putting Charlotte first, party second. Our poll this week found Perdue leading by 20 points less with Democrats in the region than either Barack Obama or Kay Hagan is. Also, among Charlotte area independents, Barack Obama leads by one, Kay Hagan leads by five, and Pat McCrory leads by 39.

It seems that folks in Charlotte, more than elsewhere in the state, want to vote for a candidate who is one of their own. That should more than make up for animosity McCrory gets for being Mayor of Charlotte from voters in lesser populated areas of the state.


Rasmus said...

Rasmussen has Obama ahead by 2 in North Carolina... When will your weekly tracking poll come out again? Saturday?

Tom Jensen said...

We're going to wait to put polls in the field this week until after the debate unless it gets postponed.

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