Tuesday, November 3, 2009

Palin has bad numbers in NY-23

Sarah Palin's not getting elected President in 2012.

We had plenty of data points to tell us that already but I find it fascinating that a plurality of voters have an unfavorable opinion of her even in NY-23.

43% view her favorably to 44% negative. This is in a poll with a party ID breakdown of R+14 that shows Doug Hoffman leading by 17 points. If Palin's not popular in an electorate with that mix she's not going anywhere nationally.

NY-23 is a district with an unusual number of moderate Republicans, and Palin's favorability with them breaks down negatively 53/32. She could overcome those kinds of numbers in a contest to get the Republican nomination but they certainly wouldn't be good enough in a general election. The North Country should be friendly ground for her and if she can't make it there it's hard to see how she can make it anywhere.


jamielandes said...

Here's how: Things change. After all, wasn't it only a couple of weeks ago that Hoffman was never going to win?

Rasmus said...

Yeah, but Hoffman was an unknown entity back then. Palin is already universally known, and opinions on her are hard.

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