Thursday, January 7, 2010

Black Tuesday?

Certain media outlets have delighted in the trio of Democratic retirements on Tuesday, declaring it the party's 'Black Tuesday.'

Well let's review...

In Connecticut where Democrats were going to lose, they're now going to win.

In North Dakota where Democrats were going to win, they're now going to lose.

Those two things even each other out.

And in Colorado a new Rasmussen poll confirms that Democrats are better off with their candidate being someone other than Bill Ritter.

Ritter had been trailing by high single digits in our polling of him against Scott McInnis all the way back to last April and I think it was clear to anyone paying attention that his getting out would help the party's prospects there.

The Bart Gordon, John Tanner, Dennis Moores of the world- their retirements were bad news for the party. But 2 of the 3 on Tuesday were addition by subtraction for Democratic prospects and the 'Black Tuesday' narrative shows either stupidity on behalf of the people pushing it or just an overwhelming desire to push 'the sky is falling for Democrats' narrative whether the facts support it or not. The party would benefit from some more retirements in places where a fresh face would make a stronger candidate than an unpopular incumbent.


Anonymous said...

CT is not off the table. Blumenthal has never faced a race and he will face one now

Anonymous said...

Now its time to get Reid and Lincoln to retire so we can hang on to those seats. Had Corzine done what done did, New Jersey would have a Governor Corey Booker instead of a Governor Chris Christie

Anonymous said...

In North Dakota where Democrats were going to win, they're not going to lose.

That makes no sense. I think you meant, "they're NOW going to lose."

Tom Jensen said...

Thanks for catching the typo

Anonymous said...

Dream on

We will pick up NV, CO, and AR because all 3 have been liberals

Anonymous said...


You were spot with Salazar and now CO Dems have probably an even more popular candidate in Hickenlooper.

Reminds me of Wisconsin where Doyle quit and we have now the Milwaukee Mayor Running.

Anonymous said...

CT will be an interesting place to watch wrt the anti-dems, anti-incumb, pro-GOP/tea-party tide. The numbers will tighten big time there. DickB has not had any serious challenger in recent elections. The best case I can make in an anti-incmb tide for the GOP is Simmons to get out - he is an ex-DC crowd..and let LindaM to pump her millions and tighten the numbers (female, outsider, millions in the pocket). I don't think Brown will win on election day, but the closeness of the polls should send shockwaves among the dems. Lincoln is finished, the dems may keep the seat if she get out and the current gov. run go for the seat. Reid is 'half'-done as well even he has 25 Million campaign funds to spend. Will that do any good, who knows, ask Corzine. What about Arlen? Heheh. Could we set up a yr for the dems to lose 30-35 seats in the house and 6-8 seats in the senate? That will be a real shocker. My perference is the dems to narrowly hold onto the house and GOP has 46 R senators. This way the dems still run the agenda but they can't jam thru stuff the public don't want. For Obama, he would be better off to have the GOP running the house..and in 2012, he could blame them on all the bad things.

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