Tuesday, January 12, 2010

More on Massachusetts

Here are some additional observations from the Massachusetts Senate poll we released over the weekend:

-I wrote last week that if the turnout drop off in Massachusetts for Democrats was as bad as it was in Virginia and if Scott Brown and Martha Coakley got the same proportions of the McCain and Obama vote that Creigh Deeds and Bob McDonnell received that it would equate to a three point win for Coakley. But Brown is getting 15% of the Obama vote, better than the 12% McDonnell got in Virgina, and that's why he's in such a strong position right now. Who are these Obama voters going for Brown? Mostly white independents who seem unhappy with the Democratic Party across the board right now. Despite having voted for him they now give Obama just a 25% approval rating. Only 11% of them have a favorable opinion of Congressional Democrats. And they give Deval Patrick only 8% approval. The Democratic brand is not doing well with these folks across the board.

-Brown is winning moderate voters 49-42. Republicans just don't win with moderates these days. Even the day before they went down in flames Creigh Deeds and Jon Corzine were winning moderates in their races by margins of 56-42 and 47-37 respectively. It's going to be interesting to see if the attack ads going up against Brown now cut down his standing with voters in the middle.

-Even among people planning to vote for Brown 39% have an unfavorable opinion of Congressional Republicans to just 38% favorable. We're seeing this in a lot of our polling right now- people hate the GOP but that's not rubbing off as much as you would expect on the party's candidates. Figuring out a way to have voters make that connection more is going to be critical not just in this race but for Democrats across the board in the fall.

-Coakley was doing very well among minority voters on our poll, leading 89-11 with Hispanics and 79-14 with African Americans. The candidates are mostly fighting over the white vote in this final week of the campaign- that's what will decide it.

It'll be very interesting to see where things stand over the weekend after this flurry of activity.


SW said...

Yeah, I'm a MA voter. Registered Dem and the corporatist Obama that's in the White House is NOT what I voted for.

I don't support corporate handouts, whether it be big banks, health ins. companies or weak global warming legislation.

What we need is change away from the current system of corporate control and domination of government and the economy to a government that works in the interests of the people...lowering health care costs, making sure people are never denied care, creating jobs for Americans.

Pres. Obama has done very little to change anything except the letter after the name of the corporate campaign beneficiaries.

Anonymous said...

This election is a lose lose, no matter how you look at it.

If Brown wins, Health Care will be slowed down. If the election is close, but Coakley still wins, many congressional Democrats will get nervous and any tough legislative votes will be avoided at all costs.

In the best case scenario, if Coakley wins by +10%, it will be chalked up as being Mass and lots of money will be wasted defending a safe Deomcratic seat...

Unknown said...

People hate the GOP, but right now they hate the Democrats more. If you're angry at the party in power the party out of power is your only realistic choice. Tying a candidate in with the Republicans worked great in 2006 and 2008 but it may work in their favor now.

Timothy said...

Does your blog suggest you're going to re-poll this race, or am I just hoping that's what I read? :-)

Unknown said...

It is time for change in Massachusetts. A vote for Brown is a vote for the middle class, lower taxes, independent thinking, strong national defense, and what small and large corporations need to create jobs in this economy. Scott has proven time and time again he will not just rubber stamp a republican idea because he is a republican. He votes for what is best for the needs of the people in massachusetts. A moderate who would stand against the spending spree going on my the leaning socialistic Senators, congressmen/woman and the President. We the people are fed up, and can't afford the excessive spening and debt that being incured.

Christian Liberty said...

What you're discovering is the extent to which the American people RESENT the Democrats.

Brandon K said...

Rasmussen basically confirms that the PPP poll wasn't an outlier.

Hart in SF said...

No, no more republicans for me.

Lies for war, New Orleans, and a ruined economy. Throw in a some racism, homophobia and bigotry. Did I miss anything?

Vote for the democrat. Hold your nose if you must.

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