Monday, February 8, 2010

Opportunities for Obama?

In these dark days for the Democratic Party it may seem comical to talk about what states Barack Obama could win in 2012 where he came up short in 2008. But things could be completely different in a couple years from where they are now and Gallup's recent release of their 50 state approval numbers for 2009 gives us an idea of where he stands across the country.

The state where Obama was most popular in 2009 that he didn't win in 2008, perhaps surprisingly, is South Carolina. One might have expected it to be a state like Missouri, Montana, or Georgia where he just narrowly lost. His approval in SC was 56.1%. I actually thought it was a little curious Obama didn't go after the state more strongly because of a) its large black population, b) what an overwhelming margin it gave him in the primary and c) its whites aren't quite as predominantly conservative as they are in some other southern states. Maybe that'll change in 2012.

Next best for Obama among states where he lost are South Dakota at 55.8%, Georgia at 55.6%, Missouri at 55.5%, North Dakota at 55.3%, and Arizona at 54.7%. It'll be interesting to see what he can do in Az. in 2012 without John McCain on the opposing ticket.

Montana, the second closest state where Obama lost, may be moving away from him. His approval there came in at just 48.1%, mirroring the broader trend of Obama's lagging popularity in the Mountain West region.


Timothy said...

I'm from South Carolina, and, no offense, but you can't possibly believe those numbers from Gallup.

Anonymous said...

Are you kidding? According to the latest Rasmussen poll, of which has proven (historicly) to being most reliably accurate than any other poll, shows Obama's overall national approval rating, amongst LIKELY voters, to be down by -8% points when compared to those who disapprove of him and the job he is doing. More revealing is the fact that he is down by -15% points, when matched up against those who strongy approve of him versus those who strongly disapprove of him. Moreover, his approval rating, when measured from his inaugaration to now, is greater than any other President in modern time - and they are continuing to fall. You, Mr. Jensen, can try to match up Obama's approval ratings anyway you choose to. But facts are facts. you are clearly out of touch with reality. You really do need to "get real".

Rasmus said...

Calm down guys, it's averaged approval ratings over the whole year of 2009.

And Rasmussen has 'proven' to be the most accurate pollster? Please tell me by which measure and based on what elections this is true. Mosteller5?

MMX FLEX said...

Rasmus is right. We'll see just how many opportunities Obama will have left after the voters have their say at the ballot box in November.

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