Friday, February 12, 2010

VA-5 Primary Poll

The Republican primary to take on Tom Perriello this fall is pretty wide open, although poll numbers do confirm the conventional wisdom that Robert Hurt is the front runner.

Hurt's polling at 22% to 12% for Ken Boyd. The rest of the candidates are getting 2-4% and you could probably argue that the real leader right now is undecided at 51%.

These numbers could change a lot between now and June. Our first poll of the Democratic primary for Governor last February found Brian Moran and Terry McAuliffe at 18% with Creigh Deeds behind at 11%. Moran and McAuliffe didn't do all that much better than their February poll standing when June came around while Deeds ended up at 50%.

Hurt and Boyd have greater name recognition than the other candidates as the ones who have prior experience in elected office but once the money starts flowing on paid media things could look pretty different.

Two other observations from the numbers:

1) The 51% undecided is just more confirmation that this nomination is probably Virgil Goode's for the taking if he changes his mind and decides he wants to run as a Republican this year.

2) The ideological battle that's broken out among Republican activists, particularly as it pertains to Robert Hurt, doesn't seem to be having much in the way of broad implications at this point. Hurt leads with both moderates and conservatives.

Full results here

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

The other interesting number is that Hurt's highest percentage of support comes from liberals (38%)

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