Thursday, March 18, 2010

The 2012 Poll

For the third month in a row our look ahead to the 2012 Presidential race makes it clear that a race between Barack Obama and either Mike Huckabee or Mitt Romney would be a tossup at this point in time.

Obama and Romney tie at 44% each. Romney wins independents 45-38 and gets 80% of the Republican vote to Obama's 76% of the Democratic vote.

Obama leads Huckabee just 46-44. He wins independents by a 43-42 margin and would also benefit from a more united party than Obama, getting 82% of Republicans to Obama's 76% of Democrats.

These numbers really shouldn't come as much of a surprise. The polling out there on Obama's approval ratings now shows the country pretty much split between approval and disapproval, and it's a reasonable leap for it to be pretty evenly divided on whether the country would be better off with Obama or a Republican as President.

The Republicans nominating Sarah Palin in 2012 continues to be the Democratic dream scenario. Obama leads her 49-41. Where Romney leads by seven with independents and Huckabee leads by one, Palin has a 14 point disadvantage. Palin does continue to be the best liked of the GOP candidates within the party, as 69% of its voters have a favorable opinion of her compared to 57% for Romney and 55% for Huckabee.

Mitch Daniels was the 'wild card' on this poll and as you might expect voters aren't particularly familiar with him. 74% say they have no opinion of him, and he trails Obama 45-34.

There are a couple ways you can look at these numbers. Obviously Obama's position is much weaker than it was in November of 2008. There's no way he would win a Presidential race by seven points today. There's a positive way to look at it though as well- even in a political climate for Democrats that's about as bad as it can get, losing in Massachusetts bad, Obama is still running even. That bodes well for him assuming that 2010 does represent a low point for the Democratic brand and things are at least somewhat better come 2012.

Full results here


Brandon K said...

Some fair points, but you and I both know that the 2012 electorate won't be 43% Democratic.

Anonymous said...

For next month, dump Palin and Huckabee from your polling list. Those two are looking less likely to run in 2012. Add in Rick Santorum, Tim Pawlenty, and Newt Gingrich.

Huckapedia said...

Huckabee WINS his 14th 2012 Victory! His Gigantic network of Huckabee Fans keeps growing at a blistering pace across America. Just google 3 simple words: Huckabee Fan Club

14) PPP Poll (03/18/10)
* Huckabee 50%, Obama 41% Midwest
* Huckabee 47%, Obama 44% South

13) Iowa Poll (03/09/10)
* Huckabee 21%, Romney 14%, Palin 12%, Pawlenty 1%

12) PPP Poll (03/04/10) - Georgia
* Huckabee 38%, Romney 28%, Palin 25%

11) PPP Poll (02/18/10) - North Carolina
* Huckabee 33%, Palin 27%, Romney 25%

10) Alabama Poll (02/09/09)
* Huckabee 33%, Palin 23%, Romney 12%

9) PPP Poll (01/22/10)
* Huckabee 45%, Obama 44%

8) PPP Poll (12/10/09)
* Huckabee 45%, Obama 46%

7) Iowa 2012 Presidential Poll (11-23-09)
* Huckabee 39%, Gingrich 32%, Romney 32%

6) USA Today Poll (11/05/09)
* Huckabee 71%, Romney 65%, Palin 65%

5) CNN Poll (10/28/09)
* Huckabee 32%, Palin 25%, Romney 21%

4) Rasmussen Poll (10/15/09)
* Huckabee 29%, Romney 24%, Palin 18%

3) PPP Poll (09/24/09)
* Huckabee 41%, Romeny 39%, Palin 38%

2) AOL Poll (10/01/09) ~ 200,000 votes
* Huckabee 25%, Romney 22%, Other (14%)

1) Value Voter Poll (09/19/09)
* Huckabee 28%, Romney 12%, Pawlenty 12%

Anonymous said...

Why would the most liked candidate (by far - Palin) in the GOP not run?

As America gets to know HER instead of the parody the lamestream media keeps projecting I think her support would snowball.

I also believe Palin would destroy Obama in a debate. She is extremely effective on the attack, seems to enjoy it, and she almost 'bobs and weaves' while doing so.

With the muzzle of the McCain campaign removed she would rip Obama to shreds.

Romney or Huckabee would get schooled by Obama. Neither is more charismatic than Obama. Neither is good on the attack. Neither could out debate him.

If Sarah retains that commanding lead of in-party support she will be tough to stop should she decide to run.

Anonymous said...

Yeah Palin looks like she's going to play a behind the scenes role by primarying RINOs and pushing constitutional and libertarian republicans. She's more powerful now than the President. Oh what happened to the public option? Ah yeah facebook veto.

If Rubio spanks Crist he needs to be on the list. He's the republican Obama. Rick Perry needs to be polled as well. He's got Palin support, tea party support, and lots of executive experience.

Peter V said...

Republican losers of 2008 will never get anywhere. More viable opposition leaders:

Mitch Daniels
Thad McCotter
Chris Christie
Scott Brown
Marco Rubio
Allen West
Paul Ryan

Many more after November.

Sapwolf said...

Holy Cow!

Palin is only 8% behind the Messiah? She was 15% behind him six months ago. She is closing faster than I thought and we are at least a year from the primaries.

She has not even started campaigning yet.

Once Independents realize she is a solid fiscal conservative and Alaska libertarian more on social issues, as opposed to the false image portrayed my the MSM, her numbers will continue to improve.

Also, I'm seeing zero bumper stickers for Obama and people are embarrassed they voted for him.

He is gonna be challenged from Hillary or somebody in his primary possibly.

Huckabee is not going to run. He is passing on the SRLC and I think he realizes that the establishment is against him and if Sarah runs he can't win.

Therefore, with Huckabee out, Sarah will likely win the GOP primary.

This sets it up in 2012 as a referendum on Obama and if the economy does not improve, he will be vulnerable as Carter was in 1980.

Palin is a Reaganite and will become the outsider/reformist candidate.

She'll close that 8% quickly in a general election, especially given her national campaign experience.

She is the ONLY solid conservative across the board who can seriously make a dent in out-of-control federal spending with the possible exception of Jim DeMint.

section9 said...

Amazing that PPP is still weighting Democrats this heavily. That said, I'm surprised that using this weighting, they allowed Sarah to get this close.

She'll run like she did in 2006 in Alaska. Idiot liberals keep forgetting how well she did in that campaign. It's like the Rosetta Stone for understanding how she wins.

Anonymous said...

As great as Thad McCotter is, he would never be presidential material. Paul Ryan will be president one day, but not yet. If history tells us anything, the next president will be Romney.

REN said...

I am a Libertarian-type conservative, making me much more "independent" and "moderate" minded according to these polls, and I can tell you right now that Sarah Palin as the Republican nominee would be a huge MISTAKE! Palin should stick to the commentary and talk news/radio side of these debates and elections. Palin is way too polarizing and could jeopardize a possible conservative win in 2012. I really do not care how much you guys like, or love, Palin... she is not the answer for 2012.

Side note: Huckabee would be almost as big a disaster as Palin.

Anonymous said...

Huckabee and Romney...yuck...

Lots of good young guys in the House...

Not Huckabee..please....

Anonymous said...

Run the poll with Paul Ryan in there-

Anonymous said...

Gotta love Sarah Palin. But, I don' believe that she would be a viable candidate for the Presidency in 2012. In fact, I seriously doubt that she could even make it through the primaries. Although, she is quite popular amongst the more conservative wing of the Republican Party, she would have an increasingly bigger problem with voters with political leanings more and more towards the center. Aside from Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorium and Tim Pawlenty there doesn't seem, at this time, to be another potential Repulican candidate on the most immediate horizon. But, then and again too, we're still a long ways off from 2012.

Anonymous said...

Ron Paul For President 2012!
Legalize Freedom
Restore the Republic
Save our Constitution
End The Fed
Ron Paul Revolution 2012!

Anonymous said...



Web Statistics