Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Obama in North Carolina

Barack Obama's approval rating in North Carolina remains in negative territory and the numbers make it pretty clear that won't change until the economy starts really turning around.

46% of voters in the state like the job the President is doing to 49% who disapprove. Obama's popularity in the state has been pretty steady since he first dropped into negative territory in August, with 44-48% of voters giving him good marks on every poll since then.

One of Obama's biggest problems is that 51% of North Carolinians think their personal economic situation has worsened in the last year with 39% saying it has remained about the same and only 10% saying things have gotten better for them. There is a significant correlation between how voters feel about the economy and how they feel about Obama. Among voters for whom things have remained the same or gotten better his approval is a positive 66/28 spread. Among voters who say things have gotten worse for them his approval is a negative 27/68. Obama isn't likely to get his approval in the state back over 50% until the economy starts really turning around.

Democrats continue to be happy with Obama, giving him a 77% approval rating. But support from Republicans is virtually nonexistent at 7%, and independents are arrayed against him by a 50/41 margin as well.

Full results here


Bluejoy said...

Yeah Tom if you assume the climate is not going to shift in the Democrats favor, you are making a huge mistake.
Piece of advice, start weighing your results between a 2008 and 2006 electorate, privately, and keep it held tight. Then when the enthusiasm numbers go up your numbers should match up. Democrats are about to make many a pollster into an idiot. Don't be one of them. Our numbers suggest Dems will keep the House and at least 57 seats. But ya gots to know people, not just numbers. You tell me how people intend to vote now, and I tell you how people are going to vote based on history. Anyone who thinks I need meds can put their money where their mouth is. My numbers are better than yours, because I rely on statistical modeling and past voting behavior. All I need to know is how indies are swinging. And they are starting to swing our way again. Remember, I am the guy who alerted you to your errors about the Owens race, when I said you were about to look dumb, and Owens by five. Look it up. I am here to help.

Anonymous said...

Man oh man oh man. Do you really think that the Democrats are going to somehow pull it out of the hat by November, hold on to the House and retain at least 57 seats in the Senate? NOT!!! And yeah, I do indeed think that you need meds. Make that a double dose. As for putting my money where my mouth is - I most certainly would. But ya know, I simply don't have the heart taking advantage of an imbecile. What, may I ask, are the Dems going to do between now and November that will magically turn the tide (or maybe I should say tidal wave) of voter discontent, frustration and outright anger. Perhaps, if you took your head out of your butt long enough to get some oxygen to your brain, maybe - just maybe, you would be able to see whats in front of your very own eyes. You may have gotten a few right - I don't know and really don't care. But, if you think that this year's elections are going to be anything short of a bloodbath for the Dems, then I really don't know what to tell you. And yes I too follow the polls - and quite extensively so at that. But, unlike you, I make no pretenses - nor have any illusions about having the insight to other people's minds. What I do understand though is the VERY simple fact that the polling numbers in themselves, do not even begin to reflect the depth of those numbers. This year's elections will be a complete turnaround of what happened in 06 and 08 - COMPLETELY! Say Scott Brown in Massachusetts. An anomaly? Me think not. If I weren't so damned tired of trying to explain something that should, otherwise be so very obvious, I would spend a little more time in teaching you a lot more about something that you clearly know so little about. In closing, just a little advice Bluejoy: Keep your day job!

Unknown said...

"In closing, just a little advice Bluejoy: Keep your day job!"

If he has one.

Christian Liberty said...

more realistically, Democrats lose the House and hold at most 51 seats in the senate.

The political climate would only get more anti-Democrat, anti-incumbent, and anti-Obamacare as the truth comes out. Housing delinquencies and foreclosures would increase. Job growth would remain anemic under the THREAT of Obamacare and cap-and-tax and EPA tyranny and card check and tax increases (repealing Bush tax relief, reinstating the Death tax, etc.) Job losses in government and school districts will increase.

The current political climate is one of excessive optimism relative to the reality people will awaken to as the curse of Obamanomics continues to lay waste to our once-great economy.

The Democrats' fetish for taxation and regulation (instead of economic liberty) will destroy their own electoral chances. The first two years of Obama will be the high-watermark of "progressivism" just like 1965-66 were the highwatermark of LBJ.

What follows next is the inevitable rejection of the Democrats by the American people. Democrats will lose BOTH houses of Congress AND the majority of governorships and statehouses AND (most likely) the presidency. "Progressives" have shown complete contempt for the will of the American people. And now they're going to PAY for it.

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