Monday, March 1, 2010

Obama's Drop

Barack Obama now has a negative approval rating in every state he flipped from the Bush column to his in 2008. In each of those places his level of support is now in the 44-46% range. It's probably a good thing he doesn't have to run for reelection this year. He can only hope things start turning around for him once the midterms are in the rear view mirror, much as they did for Bill Clinton.

Here's the state by state rundown:

-In Colorado a recent Rasmussen poll found his approval at 45/53. Research 2000 found his favorability at 46/47 in January.

-In Florida Rasmussen found his approval at 45/54 and Quinnipiac's latest found it at 45/49.

-In Indiana Rasmussen has his approval at 44/54 and Research 2000 finds his favorability at 46/49.

-In Iowa Rasmussen has him at 45/54, and the latest Des Moines Register poll put his approval at 46%, though I can't find the disapproval number anywhere.

-In Nevada Rasmussen finds his approval at 46/54. We found 44/52 in in January.

-In New Mexico we found his approval last week at 45/48.

-In North Carolina our last poll put him at 45/51.

-In Ohio Quinnipiac's last poll put him at 44/52.

-In Virginia Rasmussen's latest has him a 48/51. SurveyUSA last had him at 44/54, and we put him at 42/52.


Anonymous said...

Tom, When are the TX Primary, OK-2 and GA Sen and Gov polls coming? Thanks a Ton!

Tom Jensen said...

Not doing another Texas poll, Georgia will start coming out tomorrow, OK-2 will start coming out Wednesday.

Anonymous said...

Give the man a chance!!! It seems every time somebody is heading in the right direction to truly fix things they get blasted by polls!!!

wt said...

This is pretty great polling work. Especially impressed by the New Mexico and Iowa numbers, states that we had figured were permanently blue after 2008.

Anonymous said...

Iowa, considered a blue state? In 2008, 91% of the voters are white,and 37% were conservative. These are both on the high end. Obama won because it was a democrat year, and McCain opposed ethanol subsideies (65%+ of Iowans support that.

Christian Liberty said...

Clinton managed reelection because he ran back to the center. Clinton's good sense came from his experience as a moderate southern governor (and the wise counsel of Dick Morris). Obama has no such moderating experience to show him the wisdom of coming back to the center. Obama has always been a radical left law student, a radical left law professor, a radical left community activist, a radical left state senator, and a radical left senator in a left-leaning state supported by a corrupt left-leaning political machine. What in Obama's history (or his who in his chosen group of true believers) will show Obama the necessity of trimming his ideological sails to the center-right majority of America? Either someone has to drag Obama (kicking and screaming) to the center, or he CANNOT win reelection. Obama MUST reject progressivism or America will reject him.

Anonymous said...

I think Obama has permanently lost Florida because of the recent health care fiasco whether it passes or not. Indiana and North Carolina were also flukes because of the low conservative turnout and high minority turnouts in those states. At this point, it is hard for Obama to get re-elected without flipping some other states.

Anonymous said...

how can anyone take Rasmussen serious when this agency tilts right on all things Political

Anonymous said...

Tell me what part of 53% mis-understood the agenda; if nothing those of us who voted for him 53% want more and will be there again all 53%;the problem is Congress and we all know it takes 2 to tango;more cooperation would be good but the Media needs to provide less spin and conflict; people need to do research and find the truth;the Media is not always there to provide the truth

Anonymous said...

I have in the past heavily criticised you for having expressed (in your posts), what I personally considered to be extreme liberal bias - and on quite a significant number of issues. I will, at this point, refrain from elaborating on any of those particular issues. Instead, I would like to commend you on today's post, "Obama Drop". Very much to my surprise, you chose to report poll numbers that actually reflects unfavorable, yet credible data, relative to Obama's Presidency. More than just agreeing or not agreeing with my own political beliefs / views, all that I can or will expect from others is truth and honesty, measured only by factually based evidence, along with the willingness to coscienciously express that - nothing more and nothing less. Thank you.

Anonymous said...

I can't help but lament that these developments are too little too late. Let's assume that the drop in each of these states is due to Obama-voters realizing they were sold a bill of goods. Now they have buyers remorse and wouldn't vote for him again. If these sheep weren't so bedazzled by "The One," they wouldn't have pulled the lever for him in November 2008, and our country wouldn't be experiencing the constitutional and economic crises we're in right now. So thanks for nothing, you guys!
The Jewish Republican's Web Sanctuary

Anonymous said...

He deserves to be impeached not just polled negatively !

Jim MIller said...

Tom - Interesting piece. (I evne linked to it in my own post.

And I will add something more for you to look at: It is likely, I believe, that Obama is in similar trouble in at least a few states that Bush lost in 2004: For example, New Hampshire, which Bush won in 2000. For example, Wisconsin, which Bush lost by fewer than 6,000 votes in 2000. Perhaps even Oregon, which was also close in 2000.

Anonymous said...

Approve/Disapprove polls don't tell you anything unless they split the "disapprove" category into "too liberal or too conservative". A perfect "centrist" president would have a 33% approval rating, with 33% wanting more liberal and 33% wanting more conservative. Without asking why they disapprove, it's gibberish. This is equally true of Bush/Cheney polls as it is Obama.

Cynthia Beattie Mcgill said...

Everything Obama learned about diplomacy he learned in kindergarten and it is us, the Americans who are paying for him not learing good lessons in the childhood. Hope his putting America on the path of "set a good example and others will follow" philosphy works!
Cynthia Beattie Mcgill

Christian Liberty said...

Hannity spotlighted this post on Tuesday. (Congratulations.)

He also reported an interesting 60 Minutes/Vanity Fair poll:

30% of respondents said they were financially WORSE off, while only 10% of respondents said they were better off.

Respondents agree that a stronger economy is more of a priority than enacting health care "reform" (52-20) including 44-30 among Democrats.

And we already know from Rasmussen that more likely voters prefer tax cuts over stimulus spending, and more prefer NO health care bill over the bill(s) currently in the Congress. And we already know from history that tax cuts are the best way to revive the economy... and that cuts in the marginal tax rates INCREASE the revenues to the government.

When Obama pushes health care "reform" and "stimulus" spending, he is arguing against history and against the will of the American people.

Christian Liberty said...



With the expected population changes, IA would lose a seat and OH would lose 2 but NV would gain a seat and FL would gain 2. So the totals would still be 269-269. Obama is extremely vulnerable to defeat in 2012.

And Obama cannot just "hope" for things to start turning around for him. Obama must learn from Clinton and run to the center. Obama must reject progressivism or America will reject him.

Anonymous said...

If you polled Obama vs. Mitt Romney or Sarah Palin, in all of those states he would probably win them all.

Anonymous said...

Hey Tom how come now one cares about the Alabama Governor's race? I haven't seen one single poor anywhere.

Web Statistics