Thursday, March 25, 2010

Repeal Polling

If you thought the health care polling was all over the place I imagine the numbers on repeal will be even more so as they start to come out in the next few weeks.

Because most voters didn't really have a handle on the details of the health care bill the poll numbers, especially in the early stages, were highly influenced by question wording and in some cases ordering. Voters may understand repeal even less than they did the bill itself and because of that I think the poll numbers that come out on it will be highly variable.

Want a poll that shows support for repeal? Ask folks if they want the health care bill passed by the Democratic Congress overturned. The Democratic Congress is very unpopular. If you ask folks if they want the health care bill Barack Obama signed into law repealed you're going to get less support for repeal because compared to his Congressional colleagues he's pretty popular.

Want a poll you can say shows opposition to repeal? Ask folks if they think Congressional Republicans should focus on repeal or move on to other issues. Hard core conservatives might want the party to fight this fight, but I don't think independent voters who are mainly unhappy with Obama because of the state of the economy do.

Question order's a big thing here too. If you ask folks if they support the health care bill first, and then whether they think it should be repealed, you're going to get a higher level of support because people who are opposed to the bill will be likely to say it should be repealed so their answers are consistent. But if you ask folks if the bill should be repealed first, and then whether they support it you may get less support for repeal because a good number of folks opposed to the bill might be ready for Congress to move on from this issue.

I know what's going to happen- both sides are going to have polls whose results they like and they're going to get cherry picked big time. On an issue like this I think it's going to be hard to get a handle on what the public really thinks but the best way to do that, as is usually the case, is going to be to look at all the polls as a whole rather than fixating on individual ones.


Expected Optimism said...

This CBS poll would seem to contradict your hypothesis:

62% answered "Yes" to the question "Should Republicans continue to challenge the health care bill?"

Tom Jensen said...

Challenging it and repealing it are two different things.

Unknown said...

I agree. Unless you're a Democrat you want the Republicans to do what opposition parties are supposed to do, challenge the in party.

Perhaps you can comment on the polls that show Republicans are all crazy nut jobs. The one I saw earlier this year asked very leading but plausible questions at first and by the time they got to the 20th question people would answer "yes" to anything, no matter how crazy.

Unknown said...

No one likes this stupid bill. Dems have been trying and trying and trying for more than a year to make this "fetch" happen. It ain't, it won't, the Dems are done. They have a tone-deaf post-Ocare PR effort that involves selling this bill as a "Republican idea". Well gee, so you give the GOP another 'out' by allowing them to claim that the bill is theirs or not, all the GOP to do is say what fits the circumstances. Let's not even talk about the drip drip of bad news as details of this bills come out. The fact that it has a tampon tax, provides Viagra for sex offenders, the screwup in allowing kids to be dropped from insurance policies, small business taxes, double taxations, etc.

Christian Liberty said...

55% Favor REPEAL of Health Care Bill (Rasmussen Mar 25)

"55% favor repealing the legislation. Forty-two percent (42%) oppose repeal. Those figures include 46% who Strongly Favor repeal and 35% who Strongly Oppose it.

In terms of Election 2010, 52% say they’d vote for a candidate who favors repeal over one who does not. Forty-one percent (41%) would cast their vote for someone who opposes repeal."

Repeal is a winning issue. The latest congressional ballot only favors Republicans by 43-35. But likely voters favor pro-REPEAL candidates by 52-41.

This is bigger than an anti-incumbent election, bigger than an anti-Democrat election, this is overwhelmingly an anti-Obamacare election. The data clearly support the conclusion that vocally and publicly favoring REPEAL is the single-greatest position any candidate can take to assure election. Democrats have only themselves to blame for acting contrary to the will of the American people.

Victory in November belongs to pro-REPEAL Republicans... and if any intelligent Democrats exist, they will campaign against their party and favor repeal as well.

Christian Liberty said...

For the second week in a row, a majority of likely voters favor REPEAL of Obamacare, 54-42%. 25% of Democrats favor REPEAL (and if they were smart they would be more vocal in their support of repeal and opposition to their highly unpopular and radically far left national party.)

"Only 17% of all voters believe the plan will achieve one of its primary goals and reduce the cost of health care. Most (55%) believe it will have the opposite affect and increase the cost of care.
Forty-nine percent (49%) believe the new law will reduce the quality of care. Sixty percent (60%) believe it will increase the federal budget deficit."

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