Monday, March 1, 2010

Romney has the momentum right now

Are Republican voters across the country viewing Mitt Romney differently in the wake of Scott Brown's victory in Massachusetts? We've found a lot of good polling news for him lately:

-For the first time he came the closest to Barack Obama in our monthly 2012 survey, trailing by 2 points compared to 3 for Mike Huckabee and 7 for Sarah Palin.

-His favorability among Republicans nationally went from 51% in December to 57% in February while Palin's (73% to 72%) and Huckabee's (57% to 56%) more or less stayed the same.

-Our analysis last week of swing voters nationally found that Romney might be the Republican who can best appeal to folks in the middle. His favorability with them was a net +15, compared to +10 for Huckabee and -30 for Palin.

-In our state by state 2012 Republican polling last week we found Romney up in New Mexico and Texas. He's also doing better than expected in the south- he was in third place but at a solid 25% in North Carolina two weeks ago and our Georgia polling later this week will show him in second.

It's debatable how much of this stuff two years before the first primaries and caucuses really matters, but Romney certainly seems to have the momentum among the leading GOP contenders at least for now.


Anonymous said...

Tom, the Romney "momentum" is a bit exaggerated -- sorry, I must say that.

Firstly, for 11 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS, Huckabee was the best against Obama -- and even beat him one month. Romney bests Huckabee one month by one point -- and it goes into the "momentum" column

As for +15 and +10 among swing voters, considering the margin of error and Palin at -30 -- and that Huckabee is supposedly this right-wing extremist -- I think he is right up there with our friend Romney

As for Texas -- Huckabee was 3 points behind -- within the MOE -- and only because of Palin, who is fading quickly. If Romney gets a "solid" third place trailing by 7points in NC (outside the MOE), certainly we must note that, in Texas, they are in a virtual tie.

I give Romney NM -- (with Palin breathing down his back but, as I said, she is fading).

Let's not get carried away with Romney, okay?

P.S. You are still doing a great job -- really look forward to all your polls.

Indiana said...

I love Mitt and truly hope he runs and wins! He is an awesome man and I for one stand squarely in his corner. I had the privilege of working for his last campaign and it was awesome. I have a great deal of respect for what he has accomplished. I respect his spirituality and is abilities... GO MITT!!!

Anonymous said...

Romney's numbers went up because of credit he got for getting Scott Brown elected. Romney's book is coming out, which will increase his favorable ratings, and the bounce may make him the early front-runner rather he wants it or not. However, if Scott Brown starts voting like Olivia Snowe, Romney's numbers may slide back to normal.

Anonymous said...

I love how Romney is so quickly dismissed, unlike Huckabigot, who gets a free pass on his mediocre historical performance. Until the GOP is released from the deathgrip of Evangelical voters, we're going to have to put up with their idea of "acceptable" political candidates. God help us all.

Unknown said...

Mike Huckabee is the man for the Job...Definetly.
He's by far the most prepared and talented...

Go Mike Huckabee 2012 Go!!!

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