Saturday, September 20, 2008

Economy drives NC race into tie

Barack Obama 46
John McCain 46
Bob Barr 5

With voter concern over the economy in North Carolina at an all time high, Barack Obama has pulled into a tie with John McCain in the state for the first time in a PPP survey.

Republican Presidential candidates tend to win in North Carolina even though the Democrats have a large registration advantage because conservative Democrats and independents so often choose the GOP candidate. Their choices are often driven by social issues and immigration. The more those voters make their decisions based on the economy the more likely Democrats are to succeed.

Barack Obama's standing relative to John McCain in North Carolina has improved over the year as more voters name the economy as their top issue when deciding who to vote for:


% listing economy as top issue




McCain +14



McCain +7



McCain +3




Obama has a 58-34 advantage with those voters who say the economy is their biggest concern. He has reclaimed a small lead with North Carolina independents and increased his share with Democratic voters since a PPP survey conducted a week and a half ago in the state.

The Obama campaign has invested heavily here, banking that increased turnout from black and young voters could make the state competitive. These numbers are confirmation that in the current political climate their efforts in North Carolina could pay off.

Full results here


Anonymous said...


Anonymous said...


Anonymous said...

your poll is a joke

only one to show obama ahead, look at your eternals McCain get almost all his base, picks up a lot of democratic support, and trails indies by 3,

your poll is the outlier, i knew it was going to be a tie, or an obama lead,

after this election we can finally say your polling sucks, when you are wrong and we can put you up next to arg

Anonymous said...

internals , excuse me

Anonymous said...

i actually predicted it:

with each 5% increase in the importance of the economy McCain's lead is reduced in half. last time the economy was 50% and McCain was leading by 3%
now the economy is 58% and 3/4=0,75% lead for McCain or tied

Anonymous said...

I love how the republicans are so scared. PPP is the most accurate pollster in North Carolina. It's going blue this year, get used to it.

Rasmus said...

democrats HAVE a large PartyID advantage in NC, as Tom points out.
But a large part of those are Southern Democrats who vote Democratic on downticket races (though not in senate races), but Republican on the top of the ballot.
With that PartyID advantage, Obama can maintain a tie even with lesser party unity.

Anonymous said...

Also, North Carolina has alot of new citizens from up north who vote Democratic. North Carolina has been trending blue for years. Also if you think them polls that showed Sen. McCain up by 17% or 20% were right, you are sadly wrong. They had the party ID at 41%(D) to 40%(R). When they party ID is 45%(D) 33%(R) 22%(Others).

Anonymous said...

Actually the poll results were 46.06 Obama and 45.51 McCain.

Anonymous said...

Another point I'd ask Republican posters here to consider. Throughout the summer McCain spent zelch in NC and had no staff on the ground. But as of this month he is sending staff to NC and he is now spending $245,000 a week in TV ads in NC. Ask yourself, if NC was not close why the heck would McCain be spending so much money and sending so much staff to NC (especially considering all the admitted close contests out there, VA, CO, etc.,)? His internals must be like PPPs folks, it is the only rational explanation.

John Emerson said...

@anon 8:01
Given that CNN had the race at +1 McCain a few days ago, and Civitas Institute (R) / Tel Opinion Research, had the race at +3 McCain a week ago (since which the national trackers have shown about a considerable uptick for Obama), I hardly think you can call this poll an outlier.
If you have some constructive criticism to make, I am sure Tom would welcome the input but if you all you can manage as an objection is that, this poll is a 'joke' or it 'sucks', then perhaps you need to grow up.

Tom, I was wondering if you had any inclination on whether Barr's vote would hold up to and on election night?

Anonymous said...

The Barr at 5% is the most laughable part of this poll.

Why do you even publish this crap?

Of course, you guys never include Nader on your polls, wouldn't want to take votes from your Messiah now would you?

Anonymous said...

Where is the governor's poll? McCrory must be leading.

Tom Jensen said...

Nader's not on the ballot in North Carolina.

We have been releasing the numbers for federal and state offices separately pretty much every poll since May. The Governor numbers will come out tomorrow.

Anonymous said...

I love when people criticize a newly released poll as being the only one to show a particular thing.

It's been nine days since someone released a poll showing McCain significantly up in North Carolina; the CNN/Time poll was out five full days before this one.

If other pollsters release new North Carolina data in the next day or two, you can fairly compare this poll to them; you can't compare it to polls released nine days ago, before the economy became the top story.

Anonymous said...

If the economy is driving the Obama polls, then the corruption stories in NC must be driving the governor's race in McCrory favor. Did I just read Perdue did not appear with Obama? (of course because of her schedule) Not good

Anonymous said...

Republican Folks,

Don't worry about the poll results. May we should get more motivated to do more volunteer work. This is a state, where volunteer work will make a difference. Let us assume that, it is close and bring more Republicans to the poll. After seeing this poll, I got registered myself to volunteer.

Anonymous said...

ranjit you might want to remember that the voter registration deadline in NC is in only a couple of weeks. Seems the Reps are coming toooo late to the table in terms of organizing or setting up a GOTV in NC. That is the price McCain is paying for taking NC for granted throughout the summer, dumb mistake.

Anonymous said...

Mr. Anonymous,

If it is a dumb mistake, where is the lead for Obama? Did anyone get to see the Elon university poll? Obama had 37% of favorability rate. Any politician having that kind of unfavorable ratings, will not carry this state. This state always has huge democrats advantage and I assure you that Blue collar hillary clinton voters will not vote for Obama.

I agree that it is late but, you wait and watch the turn out efforts of Republicans in the last 6 weeks.

Anonymous said...

That Elon poll was a joke, 21% unsure who they are going to vote for? Anyways, I don't think Sen. Obama will win North Carolina, but it will be with-in 2%.

Anonymous said...

ranjit, "where's the lead?" Then why the heck is McCain spending $245,000 a week now in tv ads in NC? He was not spending squat there this summer. Does McCain just have money to burn and all the other states have flipped red? Get a clue ranjit. If everything was okay for McCain in NC there would be no need for him to spend the kind of money he is now spending there. He is scared and his ad buys prove it.

Anonymous said...

Josh and Anonymous,

One thing that I will agree with Josh. yes, the race is tight but, it is not going to be 2%. McCain will carry the state by 5 to 7%. Regarding Elon poll, I agree with them on Sen Hagan's poll numbers. Sen Dole, was never above 50% favorability and that always makes it very hard for an incumbent. So, the numbers of Dole reflects it.

I agree with Tom on the month of August. When the Democrats from DC where pouring money in to the state to discredit dole, I was surprised by the tepid repsonse of Dole Campaign. That clearly opened a bigger opening for Hagan and that is reflected in Elon poll.

So, I am not picking and choosing the polls. The race in North Carolina is tight because of African Americans. The increased turn out will account for 2 to 3% more for Obama.If it was two white candidates, the conservative nature of the state will easily give the republicans a comfortable margin of 10 to 15%. This has nothing to do with Party registrations and so on.

Anonymous said...

Civitas came out with a NC poll today also showing it TIED 45 to 45. Similarly Rasmussen has come out with a poll of NC today showing McCain's lead has shrunk from 6 (50 to 44) to just 3 (50 to 47). Those thinking PPPs NC poll was bunk sure do need to eat a lot of crow now.

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