Saturday, September 27, 2008

McHenry is wrong

Apparently today Congressman Patrick McHenry claimed that Barack Obama is only making in roads in the Democratic parts of North Carolina.

PPP has done full scale polls in three Congressional districts that George W. Bush won by double digits in 2004:

Congressional District

2004 Result

PPP 2008 Result

Net Change


Bush +33

McCain +19

D +14


Bush +9




Bush +34

McCain +21


As you can see Obama is doing an average of 12 points better than John Kerry in these deep red districts, and it's not particularly surprising. There are not enough voters in the state's major urban centers to explain Obama tied or even leading in the polls in North Carolina given how much George W. Bush won the state by. He has to be making gains in every part of the state to explain his surprising success.

Some of those districts have been hit particularly hard by economic struggles over the last four years, and we've found that's causing some former Bush supporters to turn over to Obama.


RS said...

Any chance you could poll Indiana?
I was thinking that Obama's polling well in NC because of African-Americans and the more-educated/affluent folks in Charlotte/Asheville/RTP... While Obama's doing well in Indiana because of the Chicago media market spillover into IN as well as the general industrial depression (of sorts).
Your post here suggests a similar g.i.d. may be active in NC as well... Interesting.

Anonymous said...

Wait, what? According to Dome, McHenry said Obama is only campaigning in Charlotte in Greensboro.

Regardless, in 2 out of the 3 districts you show, McCain is still destroying Obama. Who cares how much better than Kerry he's doing? This isn't 2004.

Anonymous said...

The point is, that Sen. Obama is making in-road everywhere in NC, not just Democratic areas.

Anonymous said...

Anon think of it this way. Bush beat Kerry by 12 pts in NC in '04. McCain is doing on average 12 pts worse in the Bush parts of NC. Can you not put 2 + 2 together? McCain's weaker showing (as compared to Bush) in the reddest parts of NC is making NC very very competitive for Obama. If you want to ignore reality fine by me.

Anonymous said...

Anon, get off the fucking rag and go over to so you can post messages about how the earth is flat and 4000 years old

Anonymous said...

He has a point, McHenry said nothing about Obama not improving on Kerry's 2004 NC performance, he only commented on where Obama was campaigning. One of McCain's inside men said what is being attributed to McHenry here.

Anonymous said...

This year maybe NC will be a little hard for Obama but in 2012 this state will be definitively a swing state like Virginia this year with the tradional Ohio and others.

The pundits and others stupid trolls have no idea what Unprecedented GOTV is in the Obama side. It's phenomenal. Bush in 2004 is ridiculous when you comparing.

For exemple, Obama has 77(!!) offices in Ohio.

The GOP will be affraid when after October 4/9 the registration numbers in every states will be release.

If the election is close, always Obama will win.

Don't forget than in 2004, Kerry with a poor GOTV, loses by 2.5% nationally and he was only short by 120.000 votes for win the election (OHIO).

DONATE, VOLUNTEER and we will win.

Anonymous said...

NC is definitely turning blue. I live in the Southeastern part of the state, where the biggest concentration of conservatives and military are.

I can honestly say that many of them are either disenchanted with the GOP mess Bush has created during the last 8 years or truly want to vote for change.

Anonymous said...

The Bush mess??? How about the Perdue mess, the DOT pay to play for roads in NC? Democrats have written the book on corruption in NC. The state health plan is $265 million in debt. The Democrat leadership would not address the issue. I tried to add up over the weekend exactly how much one had to contribute to the Democrat Party in order to get roads. What a disgrace!!!!!!

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