Saturday, September 20, 2008

NC Senate: Hagan up 5

Kay Hagan 46
Elizabeth Dole 41
Christopher Cole 6

Kay Hagan continues to fare surprisingly well against incumbent Elizabeth Dole, with a five point lead in this week's poll.

Hagan, like Barack Obama, is benefiting from increased voter worry over the economy. 58% of North Carolina voters list it as their biggest issue, and Hagan has a 57-30 advantage with those voters.

She's also doing well with North Carolina's fastest growing group of voters: suburbanites. They now represent a plurality of the state's voters, and Hagan is the most popular with them of any of the candidates for President, Governor, and Senate. She leads 53-36 with that emerging power broker.

Hagan is winning 40-31 among independents, and has also begin to shore up her support with black voters in the state. Elizabeth Dole did surprisingly well in 2002 with those folks, but Hagan's lead is now up to 79-11 with them, a major improvement since the early summer.

Full results here.


p smith said...

Rasmussen today released a poll showing Hagan up over Dole 51-45. Great news and very pleased for you Tom.

When can we expect the other state polls this week?

Tom Jensen said...

Planning on New Mexico this PM and Colorado tomorrow.

Adam Terando said...

Is it time to switch from polling New Mexico to polling Nevada?

Tom Jensen said...

Well I'm sure not planning to poll New Mexico again until the week before the election given the numbers we got.

p smith said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
p smith said...

Adam, Tom mentioned that he will be regularly polling MI, FL, NC, CO, OH and VA in a three week cycle plus one random state that will vary. NM is the random state this week.

If as I suspect, today's NM poll has Obama comfortably ahead, Nevada would be one option however much will depend on where the race is at that time.

If McCain closes up to a tie again, I would suggest that polling PA, WI or MN might be more relevant. If however Obama is still holding a 3 point lead nationally, then I'd like to see NV or IN.

Anonymous said...

I agree with the comment above me. Also, now people will not be able to say your polling is bias. If they do then Rasmussen must be bias too!

Anonymous said...

Is there any chance that you could do a poll of West Virginia sometime?

Its an underpolled state, in my opinion. The CW is that Obama would do poorly in it, as he did in the primaries, but instead the few polls that have been conducted have shown his numbers improving until he was within 4 points during McCain's convention bounce. But the polls have all been by organizations that aren't that great - I haven't heard of Blankenship before, and ARG was not the best of pollsters in the primaries, and a lot of the other polls in their sample look off (Obama only up by 6 in IL, for example.)

It would be interesting to get a poll that could confirm or deny this... WV is a very traditionally Democratic state, and maybe the elitism label has stuck to McCain enough for Obama to have a decent chance of winning the state

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