Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Ohio: Palin Effect

43% of Ohioans say they're more likely to vote for John McCain because of his choice of Sarah Plain as his running mate, compared to 36% who say they're less likely to do so. Two key observations beyond that topline figure:

-Among independents there is a 41/36 favorable reaction to Palin and a 23/30 negative reaction to Biden. McCain is now leading by eight points with independents in the state after trailing by 17 with them in our Ohio poll last month. Some of that is just noise since the sample of independents in any individual poll is just around 200 but it does appear the VP choices have had an effect there.

-Palin is very popular with the self identified Democrats who are crossing over to support John McCain. Whether that's causation or correlation is unclear, but a whooping 79% of them said that the choice of Palin made them more likely to vote Republican for President.

Full results here.


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