Thursday, August 20, 2009

Huckabee continues to come closest for 2012

Our fifth monthly national survey matching up Barack Obama against some possible 2012 opponents comes to the same two primary conclusions as the other four:

1) Obama leads all comers
2) Mike Huckabee, at least at this early stage, is the strongest GOP candidate

In this particular iteration of the poll, Huckabee comes the closest to Obama that he has yet, trailing just 47-44. That's tightened since the President led 48-42 a month ago.

Huckabee also has the best overall favorability rating of the Republican quartet we tested, at 45/28.

Huckabee is not the most popular candidate among GOP voters though. While 66% of them have a favorable opinion of him, 72% have a favorable opinion of Sarah Palin.

Palin's overall numbers have seen a pretty steep decline in the last month though. Two July surveys we conducted actually showed her numbers slightly improving from pre-resignation announcement levels, to a 47/45 spread. That's now dropped to 40/49. Among Democrats she's gone from 25% with a favorable opinion of her to 15%, and among independents she's gone from 45% to 37%.

In her head to head contest with Obama, Palin is down 52-38 after her 51-43 deficit a month ago had been the closest we have measured for her to date.

After Huckabee Mitt Romney polls the closest to Obama and also has the second best net favorability rating, at 37/34. He trails 47-40 in a head to head. There continues to be one pretty bad piece of news for him in these polls though, which is that he's the least popular of this quartet with GOP voters. Only 52% have a favorable opinion of him, and that lagging popularity with the overall Republican electorate has become a continuous theme in our 2012 surveys.

Newt Gingrich, seemingly the least likely nominee of the bunch, trails Obama 49-41 and has a 33/42 negative favorability rating.

It's good news for Obama that even as he navigates a difficult period of his Presidency he's still preferred to any of his Republican alternatives. The margins definitely aren't what they were earlier this year though.

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Full results here


Anonymous said...

I have followed Mike Huckabee since his last bid for the presidency. I have also read his latest book, "Do the Right Thing," and I feel that he would make a wonderful president. I believe in his ideas of smaller government, Fair Tax Act, and Pro-Life stand. He is extremely knowledgeable in both domestic and foreign issues facing America. He is thoughtful, always treating those with differing opinions with respect. He has a deep sense of morality. If he chooses to run in 2012, I would be 100% behind him, and I think America would be better off.

Anonymous said...


Can you give us a breakdown of the favorability ratings of each republican among the birthers, those unwilling to say one way or the other, and the non-birthers and perhaps break it down by Republican birthers, etc?

A moderate and conservative Republican breakdown would be nice as usual.

Zeb Acuff said...

Hear, hear, Anonymous! Mike has solid ideas for fiscal policy and is likable and articulate to boot. More of America should give audience to his well-reasoned positions. HUCKABEE 2012!

Anonymous said...

I totally would vote for Huckabee in 2012 and fully believe the US would be in much better shape if he were our current president.

Simple thoughts said...

Please do a poll with GOP voters in IOWA

lets see how palin and huck do head to head

ManteeMom said...

Voted for Huckabee in the primary and will vote for him again in a heartbeat. What about a Huckabee-Palin ticket? Any thoughts?

Robert Nolin said...

Very interesting polling.

Huckabee is strong among young people, conservatives, and independents.

He is a reasonable man and I would vote for him in 2012 to bring back some common-sense.

D.D. Vann said...

Huckabee/Palin is a very strong ticket. They have a strong appeal to conservative voters who did not even vote when McCain was on the ticket.

Huckabee/Palin could be an impressive team. Both have very committed supporters and both are weighing in on current issues more than any others.

D.D. Vann said...


The Huck/Palin ticket would be very strong considering the facts that both have continued to comment on current topics and each has an established and dedicated following.

CLS said...

Huckabee for me! I know many who feel the same way. No one else comes close in my book. Check his record as governor. Very impressive!

Anonymous said...

Great poll! Thank you. Mike Huckabee is a decent man who would help turn America around. Put it in good standing with the world, but more importantly with God.

Anonymous said...

When it comes to an electoral college game, Romney is the only Republican who can beat Obama, seeing that Romney can compete with Obama nation-wide, not just the South, which is the only region Huckabee could compete in.

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