Wednesday, August 12, 2009

More on Obama's shifts in support

Want to get an idea of just how little public opinion about Barack Obama has really shifted overall since November 4th?

Over the last two weeks in North Carolina and Virginia we've interviewed 1,328 voters. Of those 38 say they voted for John McCain but now approve of Obama's job performance and 32 say they voted for the President but now disapprove of his performance. Overall that's 5% of the electorate.

It's risky to draw too many conclusions from such a small data set. But the largest group of voters Obama has gained support with is moderate Republicans. The largest he's lost support with is moderate Democrats. It's interesting that he has really seen very little drop with conservative Democrats and we literally didn't interview a single liberal Democrat who has lost faith in Obama since he took office.

The media narrative may push some sort of huge fall for Obama, but this data is an indication that we are still very much where we were in November when it comes to his overall support.


Stephanie said...

Unless people are lying about who they voted for last fall to bring that answer into line with their feelings about the President now. Isn't that a problem for other pollsters? Does your breakdown of who says they voted for Obama and who says they voted for McCain match or come close to the actual proportions of the Presidential vote in that state?

Anonymous said...

Poll me. Very liberal democrat in california who disapproves of Obama because he is not unequivocally standing up against the co-op.

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