Friday, February 26, 2010

Good numbers for Romney

Mitt Romney is the early preference, by a small margin, among Republican voters in both Texas and New Mexico to be their 2012 nominee for President.

In Texas he gets 32% with Mike Huckabee right behind at 29%, and Sarah Palin further back at 23%. In New Mexico he receives 33% to 32% for Palin and 18% for Huckabee.

The internals of these polls suggests a path to the nomination for Romney: stay competitive among conservative voters while holding a large lead with moderates. In Texas the three are bunched up among conservatives with Huckabee leading at 32% to 30% for Romney and 27% for Palin. But Romney's blowing the other two out of the water with moderates, getting 40% to 22% for Huckabee and 13% for Palin.

It's a similar story in New Mexico. Palin leads Romney 34-31 with conservatives, but Romney has the overall advantage thanks to a 37-29 advantage with moderates.

In each state Romney is particularly strong with senior citizens, who tend to comprise a large portion of the Republican primary electorate. He has an 11 point lead over Huckabee with them in Texas and 13 point lead over Palin with them in New Mexico.

One of the more interesting things about Palin's numbers is that she performs worse with women than men in both states. In New Mexico she gets 33% from men and 31% from women, while in Texas she gets 26% from men and 21% from women. It doesn't appear she'd be able to count on a boost from Republican women in a hypothetical White House bid.

Obviously it's incredibly early and things will change a lot between now and 2012, but it's a good sign for Romney to have even this small early advantage in a couple of states that are a long way from home.

Full results here


Anonymous said...

Wow, I'm shocked!

Anonymous said...

Dude, I don't know what you've been smoking before publishing this poll, but there's no way on God's green earth that Romney can win Texas, let alone that he gets a larger share of the conservative vote in Texas than Palin.

I'd have another look at my sampling methodology before doing another poll in the Lone Star state, if I were you.

Anonymous said...

Nice he can beat Huck in the South (Texas) which is baptist central. Doubt Huck could beat Romney in the North. This bodes well for Romney.

Christian Liberty said...

IA, NH, SC, NV still will have the first say. Nate Silver did a long post on the primary and it comes down to this: Romney needs NH and IA or NV; Palin needs IA or SC; Huckabee needs IA and SC. Overall, Nate claimed that Romney has a more straightforward path to nomination than Palin, who has a more straight path than Huckabee. Your NC, NM, and TX polls seem to confirm this so far. (Of course, IA NH SC NV would be more applicable)

Nate rated NC to be a stronger state for Palin than IA (on the basis of evangelicals) and stronger than SC (on the basis that NC gave a greater share of PAC money to Palin than did SC). NM was rated as being less strong for Palin than either IA or SC. TX was expected to be even less helpful for Palin. So the NC poll may be more predictive of Palin's troubles, but seeing TX and NM polls help confirm what NC showed.

Your Feb 18 NC poll showed that when Palin underperformed in certain area codes, she lost vote share disproportionately to Huckabee, not Romney. This seems to confirm that Huckabee is splitting the evangelical vote base with Palin. The NC data that Romney beats Palin with 65+ and ties Palin with 46-65 (behind Huckabee) also confirms the TX NM finding.

Anonymous said...

I don't see anything shocking in this polling data except that people are still throwing Huckabee's name out there following his part in the release of the convicted rapist who then killed those police officers in Washington.

Anonymous said...

Romney is another big government progressive who has an R next to his name. Shame on Republicans if they nominate a guy who did Romneycare in massachusetts. It has been a disaster for the state. You can't nominate Romney if you are against Obamacare. They are both very similar.

The bottom line is both the Republicans and Democrats stink to high heaven and are destroying the country. They both are for entitlements and runaway spending. They both rip it when they are out of power.

Jed M. Merrill said...

Romney was favored to win Texas before he suspended his campaign in 2008. It's nice to see he is still in position to do so.

Anonymous said...


Just as I predicted before you published the results. NO SURPRISES!

ROMNEY / DeMINT in 2012!

Anonymous said...

Mitt Romney can win 2008 blue states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Colorado, Wisconsin, Florida, and New Hampshire.

I like Huckabee and Palin but I hope they remain on Fox News.

IndependentAA said...

PPD, a Democratic polling agency trying to discourage Sarah and her fans? How nice :) This poll is obviously a fraud aimed at making Palin look bad... Democrat are in an all out agenda to keep Palin away from the GOP nomination because they fear her charisma and potential. Mitt Romne has flip flopped so much that he makes John Kerry look honest.

Unknown said...

Huckabee.....two words,"COP KILLER"!

Eric Rowe said...

Why was Ron Paul not included in the poll?

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