Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Perry still favored

Debra Medina is fading in the Texas Republican race for Governor, and it continues to look like the contest is headed for a runoff where Rick Perry will be a strong favorite over Kay Bailey Hutchison.

Perry leads with 40% to 31% for Hutchison and 20% for Medina. Compared to PPP's look at the race two weeks ago Perry has gained a point, Hutchison has gone up three, and Medina's standing has declined by four.

Unless Perry wins the remaining undecideds by an overwhelming margin and/or peels off more of Medina's support it looks like he won't get to the 50% needed for an outright victory next week. But he leads Hutchison 52-35 in a potential runoff thanks in large part to Medina's supporters, who say Perry is their second choice by a 52-24 margin.

It's been a rough couple of weeks for Medina's standing. Her favorability spread in the previous poll was 40/9 for a +31 net positive. Now she's at 36/30 for a net positive of just +6. A 25 point drop on your numbers in the span of just two weeks is pretty unusual.

Fair or not the issue of whether Medina is a 'truther'- someone who thinks the federal government was involved in the 9/11 terrorist attacks- seems to be hurting her. 21% of primary voters think she subscribes to that theory while another 29% are unsure. Among that half of the electorate Medina is getting just 7% with 51% going to Perry and 30% to Hutchison. Medina actually leads with the half that does not think she is a truther, with 33% to 32% for Hutchison and 29% for Perry.

Although it now appears Hutchison will safely avoid the embarrassment of a third place finish her weak standing with conservative voters continues to make it unlikely that she will fare well in a primary electorate dominated by them. She actually has a negative approval rating- 43/45 with them- and trails Perry 45-24. She has a dominant 51-26 lead with moderates, but they account for just a quarter of likely voters.

Hutchison's struggles are not necessarily a product of voters disliking her so much as their wishing she would just stay in the Senate. 37% say that's the office they would like her serving in compared to 31% who wish she was out of elected office and 24% who would like her as Governor.

As for Perry his 50/41 approval spread within the GOP primary electorate is pretty mediocre but barring some major change of events he should win nomination for another term. That will set up what will likely be his closest race for Governor yet against Houston Mayor Bill White, who's cruising to the Democratic nomination with a 59-12 lead over his main challenger.

Full results here


doohap said...

Don't count your chickens before they hatch. The true poll is at the voting machine. Watch out Perry and KBH. Here we come!

Anonymous said...

Hold the press!

The difference between the last poll and this poll is 16 likely voters.

Feb 9th poll - 400 Likely GOP Voters (Medina - 24% = 96 people)
Feb 23rd poll - 400 Likely GOP Voters (Medina - 20% = 80 people

The margin of error is 4.9%, which is 19.6 likely GOP voters.

Anonymous said...

Check his out!
Early polling results show that over 20% of voters have never voted in previous primaries - these are very likely Medina supporters.

Adding this to these new poll results -

Medina receiving 100% of new voters:
Perry 32%
Hutchison 26%
Medina 36%

Medina receiving only 50% of new voters:
Perry 36%
Hutchison 28%
Medina 29%

Even these numbers for Medina may not be high enough as some counties are showing upwards of 30% new voters! Plus, we have no idea how many will show up on election day, as that is when most new voters tend to vote.

Liberty in Texas,
Anthony J. Reed

Anonymous said...

Just curious... who do you call when you call for opinion data? are you strictly using Republican voter rosters across the state for your information? Just curious.

Anonymous said...


If Medina only has 50% of the new voters:

Perry: 36%
Hutchison: 28%
Medina: 28%

Liberty in Texas,
Anthony J. Reed

Timothy said...

I'll predict Perry wins the whole thing as Medina fades further and further.

Anonymous said...


McClarinJ said...

I'm most interested in how the new primary voters are leaning, those not normally surveyed for polls like this. If their turnout is small, they will have little effect.

Although the size of the vote will not be known till the end of the March 2 regular primary day, early voting trends show an enormous increase over past gubernatorial primaries. I wonder if this increase owes to surging interest in business-as-usual candidates or to something new and different in politics that has inflamed their imagination, Medina perhaps.

Anonymous said...

They call likely republican registered voters that answer thier phone... For the most part, it people that have listed phone number... OLD PEOPLE!!!

I pray Dick Harry and Kay BEE Homes (high quality home builders, hahahahahahaaaa) trust, publish and push this poll..

Anonymous said...

Watch Out that they don't Cheat the Delegate Process.

The Nueces County Chairman added names to the Delegate list after the actual voted on delegate list were submitted to the Chairmans office. He claimed the names were voted on in their precints, the precincts argued they were not.

This skewed the delegate electorial process and the unlawful delegates overthrew lawfully elected delegates at the Nueces County Convention. This disrupted the results at the State Convention, and the National Convention.

listen for yourself as it happend...


My Advice, make a list of everyone who showed up to your precint meeting to keep for your personal record.

Draw a BIG "X" on your precincts delegate form after the last name on the list. And write "Any futher delegates names added to this form have not been voted on by this precinct and shall be considered fraudulant"

Anonymous said...

Gotta wonder about the new voter and crossover numbers. I see you only have 2% Dems in the GOP primary and 3% GOP in the Dem primary. With White breaking 50%, seems like some Dems will cross over to vote against Perry to force the runoff.

Anonymous said...

I think your polling is very skewed. I don't know ANYONE who likes Hutchison, and the Perry supporters are for the most part on the fence. The only motivated base is the Medina camp. 400 likely voters isn't going to make up an accurate final vote count.

Just my opinion though.

Anonymous said...

Why does the article not point out the drop in the approval ratings of Sen. Hutchison? In the poll released Feb 9 she was at 51 approve and 28 disapprove or +23. In the new poll she is at 47 approve and 43 disapprove or +4. That's a 19 point drop, similar to the 25 point drop in favorability for Medina. Perry had a 5 point drop, so negative campaigning is likely affecting each candidate.

Like in the last poll, Medina leads among independents. The new poll had 4% fewer independents than the prior one. If new primary voters tend to be independent/Tea Party, the final results will be much closer than these polls are predicting.

If Medina effectively addresses the Beck issue, she may win more support, as she leads among those who believe she has mainstream views.

Long way to go in this race.

Anonymous said...

Get Ready For the Spin and Be Smarter than the Spin Meisters

Many people were so disappointed in Glenn Beck when he set up Debra Medina, candidate for Texas Governor, on a recent radio program. But after some logical thought and "connecting the dots" like Glenn himself suggests that his audience should do, there is no doubt that this would be the position of FOX network...Glenn's employer and boss.
It is highly unlikely that Rupert Murdock really wants to change the political status quo and return the government to the Constitution and to the people. People in power and with influence rarely willingly give it up.

Likewise a new poll has been released today that indicates that the "Medina threat" is fading, and the race for Texas Governor is once again between Perry and Hutchison. Expect this to get big coverage on all the news programs because all the mainstream media are controlled by the same group of people with power and influence and they want things to stay just as they are, while peddling that they support "change," as they did in the recent presidential election.

Expect the news coverage of this poll to be, "Now the real race is on." It is the race "we have been waiting for, between the two Texas political titans." They will try to persuade the people that to vote for Debra Medina "is a wasted vote." Certainly you won't vote for someone whom the experts have told you that "they can't win." You must continue to vote for "the lesser of the two evils" like you have always done in the past.

However, I would urge you not to be so easily or quickly drawn away from the "candidate of the people," Debra Medina. Let's look a little deeper at the facts and number in this poll, that might not be shown on the nightly news.
Of the people who voted in this poll 50% approved of Gov. Perry's job performance. Do you?
Of the people who voted in this poll 79% have a favorable opinion of George W. Bush. Do you?
Of the people who voted in this poll, when asked to identify themselves as Republican, Democrat or Independent/Other, 80% responded Republican, 2% Democrat and 18 % Independent/Other. How do you identify yourself?
These percentages hardly jive with the results in the last governors race where 30 +% voted for Strayhorn and Friedman the Independent candidates, while Perry squeaked by with only 39% of the vote.

While Public Policy Polling Co. enjoys an excellent reputation and I would not suggest that their results are inaccurate, how this poll is used by the news media may be more to influence your opinion, rather than to just give you the audience "fair and balanced" results.
Do your homework. Make up your own mind. Do you want an entrenched politician in Austin for another 4 years or do you want a candidate who represents your views and values. The responsibility ultimately rests with you to make the right decision, when you vote for the next governor of Texas.

Anonymous said...

I would hope that people would use their own judgement about Debra Medina instead of blindly following Beck or anyone else. Here's Debra:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q73c5DEyTXU ; http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-dmx92TFv-g ;http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ARyhX_srQvY

VoicesofReason said...

Rick still can't get above 39%, even in a primary... 39% has only won elections for him because there are other candidates... after Medina is out, there will be two. Perry's condescending, arrogant attitude and record will finally bring a very sad 10 years to an end. Texas could have done even better these last 10 years with better leadership. Taking credit for something you didn't influence isn't leadership...

dennis308 said...

I belive that one very large factor is not being entered in to any of these poll models and that is that TEXAS has the highest or second highest number of Tea Party Groups in the Nation depending on what day you do your counting and that the Texas Tea Party secseded from the National Tea Party over Palins endorsment of Perry,I do and will continue to suport the U.S. and Texas Constitutions and D.Medina

Web Statistics