Wednesday, March 3, 2010

Boren looks safe

A lot of Democratic Congressmen in districts won by John McCain are in big trouble this year. Dan Boren doesn't appear to be one of them.

Boren is the first Democratic member of Congress we've found with an approval rating over 50% since we polled on Mark Warner back in October. 51% of his constituents like the job he's doing to just 33% who disapprove of it.

Boren holds large leads over a quartet of Republican opponents with minimal name recognition. He's up 44-28 on Daniel Edmonds, 45-25 on Charles Thompson, 48-26 on Howard Houchen, and 49-22 on Dan Arnett. Independent Miki Booth, an avowed 'birther,' receives 7-8% of the vote in each of those match ups. Only 18-21% of the voters have an opinion about any of the Republican candidates, suggesting that the race does have the potential to tighten once the candidates become better known. Nevertheless this race doesn't appear to be remotely among the GOP's top pickup opportunities.

Boren's continuing to be successful despite the highly conservative nature of his district. Barack Obama's approval rating is a 27/65 spread, with even Democrats disapproving of him by a 42/47 margin. This is the first place we've ever found Obama's numbers in negative territory within his own party. Only 17% of voters in the district, including just 29% of Democrats, support the Democratic health care plan.

Even though Boren has voted against a large number of major Democratic initiatives, 31% of his constituents still think he's too liberal. That perception may be based in some part on misinformation though- 32% of voters think he supported the health care bill while only 30% correctly identify that he voted against it.

On the whole Boren's clearly done a good job of differentiating how his constituents feel about him personally from how they feel about his party. 70% of his district disapproves of the job Congressional Democrats are doing. But most of them are planning to vote for him anyway.

Full results here


Moe Lane said...

We're actually surprised that he hasn't flipped parties by now. Stubborn sort, I guess.

Christian Liberty said...

If Democrats cared about being a party that represents America, they would keep moderates like Boren (OK) and Altmire (PA) and abandon left-wing lunatics like Grayson (FL) and Schakowsky (IL).

If Democrats cared about representing America, their first priority would be to support the Democrats who wisely voted against the health(s)care bill that the overwhelming majority of American oppose.

If Democrats cared at all about representing America, the 39 Democrats who voted against the house health(s)care bill would be the party's heroes. The fact that Democrats speak ill of these representatives, just proves that Democrats hold Americans in contempt and only dream up ways of ramming their totalitarian tyranny down our throats.

Jamison Faught said...

Given Boren's past electoral performances (66%, 73%, 70%), I was rather surprised that he was under 50%.

This could be the Republican's best performance in this race since Tom Coburn left office.

Christian Liberty said...

Boren's independence is his best asset:

Boren calls for Rengel to resign as Chairman

"Oklahoma Democratic U.S. Representative Dan Boren has joined others in calling for New York Democratic congressman Charles Rangel to resign as chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee.

...Republicans plan to call today for a vote in the House to remove Rangel and Boren said he will vote for such action."

Anonymous said...

@Christian Liberty - Actually most Americans do want the health care bill. They wish it was stronger.

Look at Spector. His poll numbers INCREASED upon him supporting the bill.



Anonymous said...

This is not a surprise, is a logical result, without republican opposition Boren is safe, like much others (Matheson, Mollohan...). And Boren surname help him, we must remember all is not own success in Dan Boren's case.

This poll mean some of supposedly endangered democrats in red states are safe.

They are not evidence than democrats will lose more than 15 house seats.

Christian Liberty said...

Most Americans want Congress to either START OVER on healthcare with a blank sheet of paper or else SCRAP THE BILL entirely. Passing the Democrats' bill is the LEAST popular option.

Christian Liberty said...


Specter is going to lose BECAUSE of his support for the Democrats' healthScare bill.

Specter should be listening to wiser Democrats like Jason Altmire:

(NYT) “I don’t know of any no votes at this point that would switch unless the bill is substantially changed, including me,” he said. “And I know of a handful of ‘yes’ votes who regret it and would relish the opportunity to put a ‘no’ vote on the board so they could go back home and talk about that.”

All intelligent Democrats in competitive races either voted NO on health care or WISH THEY HAD.

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