Monday, March 29, 2010

Missouri Poll Preview

We're going to have a new Missouri Senate poll tomorrow and it doesn't suggest much momentum for Democrats in the wake of health care passing.

When we looked at the state in November Barack Obama's approval was a negative 52/43 spread. It is still that exact same negative 52/43 spread.

In November 55% of voters opposed the health care bill with 34% supporting it. Those numbers are slightly better now at 54% opposition and 37% support but still pretty bad for Democrats.

Missouri's just one state- albeit an important swing state with perhaps the best opportunity for Democrats to win a GOP held Senate seat this year- but what we found there is what I expect to find across the board in our polling in the coming weeks. Passing health care won't make things any worse for Democrats- because the political damage had already been done- but it's probably not going to make things much better either.

That's because most folks who disapprove of Obama and are planning to vote for Republican candidates this year were opposed to the health care bill. So its passage isn't exactly going to win them over to the Democratic side. The concept that Obama's ratings would go up after the passage of health care because Americans 'like a winner' strikes me as first degree wishful thinking.

What impact does this all have on the Roy Blunt/Robin Carnahan race? We'll tell you tomorrow.


Bluejoy said...

Robin will win because she knows how to be a Missouri Democrat. Blunt is too much of an insider and she is a respected state office holder. Thing is, Missouri is not a swing state. It is a conservative stronghold that down home Democrats survive in. The demographics are not shifting. Texas will go blue before MO. Lock solid cinch. You can poll and worry all you want fact is there are no longer National trends, only regional bases. The Democrats will get slaughtered in the South and clean up in the North. The Republicans just don't have enough people anymore to create a wave. More like a ripple. You want answers, 88 percent of voters here are white. More Kentucky than Illinois, not a compliment, this state will be among the last to go into the light of progress.
Here is something to remember, though, 2008 will look like nothing, a blip. When the Latino shift comes into full effect, the Dems will lock down FL, NY, CA, and TX. Game, set, and match. Then you will see a tidal wave.

The next big political debate will be the far left versus the center left. The teabags are just belching into the wind. Irrelevant. Indies in a midterm are overrated because 60 percent won't vote. Will Democrats lose seats? Yes. Will they lose Congress? No. And they will more than make up for their losses in 2012. Book it.

Anonymous said...

When NH-Sen, PA-Sen and PA-Gov?

Brandon K said...

Whatever happened to your OH Dem Primary numbers?

Unknown said...

Book it.


You're on that one-way flight on a biplane to Dumbville on your own.

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