Speaking of handling questions from interested parties about the state of the race in NC: Any thoughts on the Civitas poll released today showing Obama ahead by 5 (48 O to 43 M)? It mirrors to some extent with PPPs NC poll out earlier this week (with some minor differences in the breakdown by region).
I am very confident that Barack Obama is winning in NC right now by more than a point or two so I was glad to see Civitas confirm that. I'm not sure he's really going to end up winning the state next month, but I am sure he's winning it right now based on both our statewide polling and how well he's doing in various Congressional and legislative districts across the state where we conduct private polling for candidates.
As to your last point, how much difference will early voting impact your assessment of Obama's chances in NC. The theory is that now that Obama is ahead in NC he will use early voting to lock in (or bank) those votes for him now so that subsequent events or second thoughts do not get in the way of him receiving that support. I believe early voting starts either today in NC or very soon thereafter. Do you think Obama's ability to bank his vote may change your opinion of his ability to win the state.
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