Friday, October 31, 2008

New Mexico Results

Barack Obama 58
John McCain 41

New Mexico is a candidate to be the state with the largest turnaround in its voting pattern relative to 2004. Barack Obama is blowing out John McCain in this place that went red just four years ago.

Obama is doing very well with two key groups of the state's voters. Among independents he has a 66-28 lead, and with Hispanics he's up 62-37.

This may begin to sound like a broken record, but he's also banked a huge lead with those who have already filled out their ballots. 56% of poll respondents reported having done that, and within that group Obama is leading 64-36. He is up by a much more modest 50-47 tally with those who have yet to vote.

We interviewed 1,537 people in New Mexico. 866 of them said they already voted, and 550 of those people said they voted for Obama. That means that if this was an accurate sampling of the population, Obama would need to win the votes of only 219 of the remaining 671 people polled who had not actually filled out their ballot. It seems a good bet that 33% is something they can handle.

Tom Udall is up 58-39 in his Senate bid.

Full results here.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

wow this is great! Thank you tom!

Michigan tonight as well?

elliot said...

Obama's lead is almost as big as Udall's lead, wow I wasn't expecting that, lol.

Tom Jensen said...

Yes, Michigan's coming.

The Raj Man said...

Love your work!!! Could I ask just one thing? How do the early voters look in terms of past voting behavior? I.e., how do your likely voter models assumptions stack up against actual behavior?

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