Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Obama takes the lead in Ohio

Barack Obama 49
John McCain 43

With a commanding lead among voters most concerned about the economy, Barack Obama has taken back the lead in Ohio after trailing by four points in a PPP poll conducted three weeks ago.

61% of Ohioans list the economy as their biggest concern, up from 36% compared to a similar poll in January. Among those voters Obama has a 58-34 advantage over John McCain.

Much of the movement in Obama's direction since the last poll has come from a tightening among white voters. Where McCain previously had an 18 point advantage it is now just 6. Given the overwhelming support of black voters for Obama, McCain probably can't take the state without at least a 12 point advantage with whites.

Another key factor for Obama is that he is doing a much better job of holding onto the Democratic vote now than he was in previous surveys. He has an 84-9 lead with folks in his own party, compared to 78-16 last month. For all the bluster it appears that most of Hillary's supporters have come home.

Full results here.


Matthew H said...

How about a state that hasn't been surveyed much lately, like West Virginia or Arkansas? I'm also curious to see if North Dakota has gotten over its Palin Swoon.

Not sure if there's any possibility at all for McCain if Ohio remains Obama +5 or better. Pennsylvania and Michigan are both more "blue" than Ohio, so if he's doing that well in Ohio, Obama should take all the Kerry states except New Hampshire. That with Ohio kind of ends the game right there.

Blueman said...

Want to make some news (potentially)? Try polling Arizona.

Anonymous said...

Palin's favorability is a -10 from one poll to another. McCain's percentage is also - 10. Is is the chicken or the egg?

Mark said...

What about west virginia? No polling in over two weeks.

Jeffrey Davidson said...

I was hoping I could vote for Arizona, a state which may be moving into play.

It always amazes me when a candidate has trouble in their home state and I would love to see what their reponse has been to the economy, his Veep selection, and the move towards negative ads.

Abe Shimm said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Michael said...

Texas is poll-free but something tells me that it might be closer than assumed especially for the Senate.

Rick Noriega is single digits behind incumbent John Cornyn.

McCain has no organization there.
Obama does. The primary turnout was high and the Democrats have registered record numbers of new voters.

p smith said...

I may be wrong but I seem to recall that we will have a Virginia poll from Tom this week also.

I am still astonished that Obama is in the lead in VA. This is truly a historic moment in American political history.

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