Thursday, October 2, 2008

Palin Before and After

PPP has now polled in four states both immediately after and then again three weeks following the Republican convention. This chart shows how Sarah Palin's popularity has dropped and Barack Obama's lead has increased in each of those states over that period of time:

State

Palin Favorability

Palin Favorability

Change

Horse Race

Horse Race

Change

Colorado

41/38

38/47

-12

Obama +1

Obama +7

Obama +6

North Carolina

42/34

38/41

-11

McCain +4

Obama +2

Obama +6

Florida

45/34

40/41

-12

McCain +5

Obama +3

Obama +8

Michigan

45/35

39/43

-14

Obama +1

Obama +10

Obama +9

Average

43/35

39/43

-12

McCain +2

Obama +6

Obama +7

7 comments:

Jerome Armstrong said...

I don't like the look of these polls, you are over polling women in your results leading to McCain underperforming. Please do us all a favor and be more accurate than your joke of a poll from the PA primary.

Thanks,

Jerome

Elliot said...

Jerome,

Besides that Pennsylvania poll, where was PPP radically wrong compared to the other pollsters? Because from where I'm sitting, they accurately hit Texas, Ohio, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Oregon.

andgarden said...

I think you guys are confusing causation with correlation.

Why so much interest in Palin but not the economy crosstab?

Elliot said...

One other thing Jerome,

Where do you see them oversampling women? I've checked their numbers from North Carolina, Colorado, New Mexico, and Florida, in each instance they are either roughly the same as the exit polls or slightly UNDERSAMPLING women (in the case of North Carolina, I checked the state's Board of Elections (http://www.app.sboe.state.nc.us/NCSBE/VR/VR%20Stats/vr_stats_results.asp?EC=09-27-2008), and I saw that PPP was actually slightly understating women in their sample (not nearly enough to make anymore than a tenth of a point's difference, mind you).

Wily Trax said...

Even if McCain/Palin lose the election, the name Sarah Palin will live on.

Every Wednesday at Trivia Night.


http://www.wilytrax.com

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