Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Where should we poll next week?

This democracy thing worked out last week so let's try it again. Seven choices on where we can poll next week:

-Arizona. With Hispanic voters in the region unifying around Barack Obama, it could be at a surprising level of competitiveness. A refresh of how Janet Napolitano and John McCain might face off in 2010 would also be interesting.

-Georgia. This is one of three states I'm offering up as possibilities because their large black populations could make them surprisingly competitive if whites and blacks turn out at similar rates and Obama can pull off enough of the white vote. And of course the Senate race has become very tight.

-Indiana. I don't think any explanation is really needed.

-Michigan. That's what we would regularly be polling this week but it seems less pressing with McCain pulling out of the state. I like polling it because it's where I come from but beyond that...

-Mississippi. Similar to Georgia, and also with a compelling but under polled Senate race.

-Nevada. I'm sure this is firmly in the Obama column at this point but there still hasn't been that much polling confirming it.

-South Carolina. Similar to Mississippi and Georgia. When we polled it in July Obama was only down by six. Plus I'm curious to see how Stephen Colbert would stack up against Jim DeMint in 2010.

Personally I'm voting for South Carolina- but the majority will rule. Poll is at the top of the page and I'll keep it going until around 4 PM Thursday.

32 comments:

Levi said...

Indiana, Indiana, Indiana!

Srinivas said...

Hey Tom, nice to know you are fellow Michigander. I still am one though :-)

andgarden said...

You guys comfortable that the robopolling prohibition isn't a problem in Indiana anymore? I'd love to get some fresh numbers there.

Oh, and let me echo the last thread: having West Virginia or Arkansas as an option for the next cycle would be great.

Fwiffo said...

No Arkansas? :-(

GA and MS are interesting for the Senate races...

William said...

West Virginia really needs to be polled by you guys. There's evidence showing it as a close race but nobody's polling it(except the R2K poll of only one of the districts)

We need a statewide poll!

Anonymous said...

I would like to get an Indiana poll sometime, but I would really like for you to poll a lot of the possible upsets in the South. SUSA may have Obama down 8 in Georgia, for example, but considering how badly they called it in the primary, I would like for you to poll those races as well. Hence, I voted for GA.

I think that we have quite a few Ohio/Florida polls already, actually, so it would be nice for you to substitute another state for your Florida one. Like WV; we really need to get a better pollster than ARG to look at that. The recent R2000/Dkos WV-02 poll's internals did somewhat confirm it (though the poll itself was very flawed due to messed-up party composition)

Matt said...

I would have chosen West Virginia or Arkansas if either were offered as a choice.

Of those offered, Indiana would most interest me.

sdf said...

What about West Virginia? That's my write-in vote.

Simon said...

Utah anybody?


I vote for Mississippi

app state said...

I picked Georgia, but only because West Virginia was not available.

Anonymous said...

I agree with others that say West Virginia. Arkansas is another I would like to see.

Lauren said...

Arizona, please! Let's see what's going on in McCain's home state!

Anonymous said...

Indiana is my choice. There has been a dearth of polling there. My second choice would be Georgia (although I'd love to see what is happening n Montana, but that state is not on the list).

BR said...

Arizona - because the most devastating possible news for McCain is that he is only a couple points up in his home state and has to return to defend it.

Yes, being only up a few points in Georgia or Indiana or the like is bad, but Arizona is his home state and can't be explained away because it has a very low black population.

markedman said...

can't you poll ALL Of them?

Edward Carlsson Browne said...

WV or AR would be good. I'd also be interested in polling of ND, MT or SD. I suspect the recent poll showing Obama up in ND was an outlier but it'd be nice to have a better picture of the area.

Anonymous said...

West FREAKING Virginia!

Jason said...

...Arizona over West Virginia? Really?

I still stand by WV, but I suppose IN will have to do.

Carla said...

Its not one of your listed options..but it seems like polling the Oregon Senate race would be an easy call.

thisniss said...

South Carolina!!! South Carolina! We need PPP to help SUSA with their sampling (again).

C'mon, peoples. Indiana is stinky and yucky and gross. South Carolina is the one you want.

(I think that was a persuasive, intelligent argument. Also, I used to live in Louisville and work in So. Indiana, so I can honestly say that Indiana really and truly doesn't completely, totally suck in every way. Most days.)

Oh, and I also think a WV would be good - after SC, of course.

Anonymous said...

My write-in is WV, but my backup is most certainly GA.

Anonymous said...

As someone who also lives in Michigan, I always love a good Michigan poll. However, there have been a few lately that show a good-sized Obama lead, so I voted for Indiana. Like many others here, though, my first choice would have been West Virginia. My third choice is North Dakota.

Frank said...

The senate races in Georgia, Mississippi, Oregon, Texas, and Kentucky.

Anonymous said...

I would like a poll with New Mexico just to confirm what is happening in the Mountain West (Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada) all heavily trending towards Obama.

atdnext said...

Nevada! Please poll Nevada! While I'd like to see another reliable poll of the Presidential race, I'd also love to see reliable polls of NV-02 & NV-03. The LVRJ/Mason-Dixon poll released last weekend was simply screwy, as the sample sizes in the Congressional polls were WAY TOO SMALL (only 236) and the overall internals just didn't make sense (in no other Nevada poll do voters blame Democrats as much as Republicans for the economic crisis).

I'm shocked to see myself say this, but Mason-Dixon so far has been one of the worst pollsters this cycle... Down there with even ARG and Zogby! That's why I'd love for you to poll Obama v. McCain, Derby v. Heller, and Titus v. Porter in The Silver State.

Clem G. said...

With another poll confirming W.Va. as a toss up, it is crying out for you to poll.

irwinc said...

I voted for Georgia... interested to see if the close Senate race is going to spill over to top of ticket.

2nd choice would have been Arkansas... but it's not on the list. There hasn't been a poll in Arkansas since mid September - before the gap closed in GA and MO... something's got to be brewin' down in Little Rock.

JohnnyCougar said...

Three states are drastically underpolled this cycle: MS, ND, and WV. I'd like to see someone poll all of them, but Mississippi has to win out because it has a close Senate race as well. WV is a close second (and hopefully it will be on next week's list).

JW said...

There have been 5 polls of GA in October, but none of AZ. Go AZ!

But if I had to choose one not on your list, it would be AR. Barely any polling has been done there this year. And since it seems WV is moving towards toss-up status and MO is firmly there, if not tilting Obama, could AR be far behind?

baal said...

I'm thinking that MO will be the last redstate to fall along with possibly NC, IN is a longshot and WV is out of the question--too many dumba---err I mean "low info voters". Those other states--fuhgettaboutit--not gonna happen.

However I own homes in AZ and NC and chose to vote in NC this year--and would like to know if I doublecrossed myself. I would like to see AZ polled--it's been underpolled this cycle--and I suspect it's close.

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