Saturday, August 8, 2009

And the finalists are...

We're going to let you have six choices on where we poll this week:

The first couple are places where we found Democratic Senators up for reelection next year with iffy numbers even before Barack Obama's approval started declining, so it would be interesting to see where they are now:

-Arkansas. We showed Blanche Lincoln with a 45% approval rating in March...we would look at how she does against a generic Republican, what her general reelect numbers are, and how she does against some of the candidates who have already announced.

-Colorado. Michael Bennet's approval was in the 30s in April and he was polling in the margin of error against most of his prospective opponents. I guess we'd be open to testing a primary challenger too, open to suggestions on who that would be. We can also take an early look at the GOP primary for Governor and how both of those hopefuls do against Bill Ritter.

Then there are perhaps the two most competitive Senate races for next year that we haven't polled yet:

-Connecticut. We would look at how both Chris Dodd and Richard Blumenthal do against the Republican candidates, as well as the Governor's race for next year.


And a couple western states:

-Arizona. We'd take an early look at Jan Brewer v. Terry Goddard, get an initial look at Obama's prospects for taking the state in 2012, and gauge John McCain's vulnerability in both a primary and the general election. If Arizona wins what Democrat(s) should we look at against him?

-California. Is Barbara Boxer really as vulnerable as the recent Rasmussen poll suggested? And of course a look at the open Governor's race.

No matter where we poll we'll look at the birther stuff, it will be interesting to see it somewhere outside the south (unless Arkansas wins.)

Vote at the top of the page, it will be open until Wednesday morning, we'll do the poll next weekend.


Anonymous said...

Haven't you learned to stick to polling analysis and leaving the political analysis to other?

Jeff said...

If Arizona wins a McCain vs. Gabrielle Giffords matchup would make sense. While she probably won't run (unless polls show her doing well) there's been talk of her running for statewide office sometime if the future. This would be a good chance to see how she is already perceived statewide. Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon is also a possible candidate who would be good to poll against McCain as well.

Unknown said...

Phil Gordon
Jim Pederson
Dennis DeConcini
Karan English
Sam Coppersmith

for Arizona

Texas Iconoclast said...

For Arizona:

On the off chance that Janet Napolitano resigns (like when Mel Martinez resigned as HUD Sec. and ran in Florida) and runs for the Senate, I'd say poll her just to see what her numbers look like.

Also, Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon, Congresswomen Ann Kirkpatrick and Gabrielle Giffords.

If that's Dennis DeConini of Keating 5 fame probably not. He's also 72.

Just in case y'all decide to poll McCain primary challenges I'd be interested in how the 3 Republican Congressmen would stack up against him (Jeff Flake, John Shadegg, and Trent Franks).

AZNico said...

Karan English is currently serving as a board member at the Office of Congressional Ethics and members are prohibited from running for public office for quite a while even after their tenure is complete (18 months, maybe?), so she's impossible. Also, DeConcini is 72 now--the same age as McCain.

Anyway, the rumor floating around for a while was that Tucson City Councilman Rodney Glassman was seriously considering the race. Not a top tier candidate by any stretch of the imagination, but it might be interesting to include him or someone like him to get a Democratic baseline (particularly if you have sources confirming his interest as I imagine y'all are better connected than I am). Coppersmith might be another possibility for a baseline since IIRC he's stayed fairly involved in Democratic politics. Giffords and Gordon are the other obvious possibilities, though they're probably waiting to duke it out in a primary in 2012.

Finally, I know you'd already be asking a lot, but you may want to consider looking at a potential Republican Gubernatorial primary as a lot of people think that SOS and former Senate President Ken Bennett is planning to run--whether Brewer runs again or not.

Anonymous said...

There is no Dem primary in CO-Sen. But not only does the GOP side have Frazier and Buck, Bob Beauprez has been making a lot of noise in the last week about getting in the race.

Tom Jensen said...

I know there is not currently a Democratic primary but if Bennet's numbers are really weak there is still a chance someone could decide to go for it.

Jeff said...

If Arizona wins polling Janet Napolitano's Favorable/ Unfavorable rating would be interesting. 2010 is off the table for her but if she's still popular in 2012 she could give Kyl trouble.

Anonymous said...

Poll former Colorado House Speaker Andrew Romanoff against Bennet. Romanoff was one of the top contenders to receive the Senate appointment and has been rumored to be considering a primary challenge against Bennet.

Anonymous said...

I want Angie Paccione to challenge Michael Bennett in the primary.

Jeff said...

For the Colorado Democratic Senate Primary, Andrew Romanoff is the only candidate I know has been seriously talked about. Maybe one of the state's Democratic Congressmen would be work polling, but Romanoff makes the most sense.

alex said...

I really want to see GOP Colorado primary for Senate. Frazier Buck Tidwell and maybe Beauprez will be fighting for the nomination. I'd also like to see match-ups for gubernatorial and senatorial races. GOP should be able to pick both those seats up

Anonymous said...

If Colorado wins, please poll Obama vs. Romney/Huckabee/Pawlenty/Palin for 2012.

Unknown said...

If Colorado wins the have a bazillion options on polling there....but not Palin, she isn't running. Do Gingrich or something else

Anonymous said...

Um, there is no Dem primary chatter anymore. That is a myth. After Bennet got in, there was a "Draft Romanoff" movement that lasted for about a week.

Since then, Bennet has banked millions of dollars, consolidated tons of political support from state electeds, and the activists are responding favorably to his health care reform support, to keep a serious primary challenger from emerging.

So no, Tom, there isn't a chance 'somebody' credible is going to 'go for it.' That window closed months ago.

Anonymous said...

Please poll Obama against Palin, Romney, Gingrich, Huckabee if Colorado wins.

Alex said...

Pawlenty is MUCH more likely to get elected or the nom then Palin

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