Monday, October 20, 2008

Florida and Indiana Clue

Here's one to let your heads spin until tomorrow: Obama is doing better in our Indiana poll than our Florida one.

39 comments:

Hussein said...

Is that Obama is doing unexpectedly better in Indiana or has Mccain taken a lead in Florida?

Andrew H said...

I hope by that you mean: Obama is up at least 3 or 4 in FL while he is up by 1 more point in IN.

Either way, Obama should get bump in FL this week with at least 3 events in big cities (2 with Hillary, 1 with Michelle).

Anonymous said...

Ugh... I'm not sure I like this tease...

Antmatic said...

I hope this means Obama is winning Indiana by 5 points and winning Florida by 2 or 3.

Anonymous said...

So unless you are showing Obama up by 5 in Indiana, your tease is giving me heartburn. Seriously, almost every poll has Obama ahead in FLA. Indeed, Obama GOTV crew told reporters they have the votes to win in FLA all they need to do now is turn them out, which would suggest Obama is doing well in the state.

Dan said...

I do agree that almost all polls have Obama ahead in FL and I would say he has a slight edge in the state. However, GOTV crews ALWAYS think they have the votes now all they need is to turn them out... Kerry thought he had the votes AND turned them out in Ohio... Dean was convinced he was unbeatable in Iowa because of this, etc.

LAT said...

my hope here is that Obama is at 3 or 2 in Fl but 5 or so in IN. I don't want him tied or behind in FL!

Anonymous said...

Wha-wha-wha-WHAT?

Mathis said...

Dude, lame tease! This is killing us! (Although here's to hoping that both numbers are great for Obama).

Lance S said...

Actually, with the leads Obama has in VA, CO, and NC, FL probably doesn't really matter (although I'd love to see him win there). If McCain's late drive nets him FL and OH, but loses the rest it's a comfortable win for Obama.

Anonymous said...

I'm kind of getting worried about FL. After a few polls showing Obama up by a lot, Rasmussen is showing him down again, and SUSA still refuses to give him a lead (though their sample has a messed up D-R breakdown.)

Anonymous said...

Agreed the Ras FLA poll makes no sense. How can Obama be leading in VA and NC but be losing in FLA? Someone please explain this to me. The demographics in VA and NC are much more favorable to McCain than they are in FLA, yet Ras (and maybe PPP) show Obama performing better in VA and NC than in FLA?! That just does not jive.

Antmatic said...

Actually the demographics of VA are more favorable to Obama than they are in Florida.

Florida will depend on turnout. I like the events Obama and Hillary are doing there today.

Jerome Armstrong said...

This is a tease that makes sense to me. John McCain has been campaigning effectively and his debate performance was his best of the year. I wouldn't be surprised by a Florida result that was McCain +7 and an Indiana result of McCain +3.

Maybe you are finally applying a realistic voter screen instead of attempting to re-enact your performance of the Pennsylvania Primary this year.

Elliot said...

Hey fake Jerome,

When PPP is proven right I hope you come back here and give Tom and the rest of these guys a huge apology.

Anonymous said...

Prediction:

Indiana: Obama 48 McCain 47
Florida: Tied 47-47

Both probably good news because unless you have McCain +3 in either, Obama's GOTV will take both.

Note about this teaser: It never says that Obama is losing either state.

stevie314159 said...

I'm guessing you wouldn't tease with bad news, and looking at your previous polling in FL (compared to SUSA) and your prior better for Obama OH #s:

IN +4
FL +2

Just my guess

sdf said...

I hope you aren't teasing us with bad news, but given the recent other polls showing FL essentially a dead heat, maybe you are about to show the same ...

Mathis said...

Alright, my predictions:

FL: 49(M)-48(O)
IN: 46(M)-46(O)

unertl said...

The two most recent Florida polls (Ras and SUSA) have shown McCain with a tiny lead. The last PPP poll of Florida had Obama with a +3 lead, and he probably isn't doing as well since the race is somewhat tightening. I'm predicting Obama leading FL by 1 pt and IN by 2 pts.

Anonymous said...

My guess (based on the prior SUSA polls) is Obama +1 in FL and Obama +3 in IN...

C.S.Strowbridge said...

I don't expect Obama to win either state, but I would be amazed if Indiana is closer than Florida on election day.

Anonymous said...

With voter registration trends in FLA showing Dems share of the electorate increasing through the year (somethin NEITHER party has accomplished in Pres elections going back to 1996) and Reps share decreasing, and an acknowledged (by Reps in the FLA state party no less) superior ground game by Obama in FLA, I would have trouble believing that somehow McCain is ahead in the state. Heck even the Rep gov of FLA wont campaign with McCain. Going back to my earlier demographics question, admittedly VA may have a slight advantage over FLA in its demographic makeup so as to be a more likely place for a Dem win, but FLA hands down has better demographics for a Dem candidate than NC yet all the polls still show Obama ahead in NC. Finally, Obama's ad buys in FLA are overwhelming. Just does not make sense to me.

Anonymous said...

Good thing Obama just needs CO to win, and McCain has all but given up on that state.

Graham said...

I think right now the state polls are lagging indicators. Current polling is going to show the trend of late last week, but Sunday and Monday have been huge days for Obama. This will probably be reflected in the state polling we start to see towards the end of the week.

Anonymous said...

Having crunched some numbers it appears Rasmussen's FLA poll is utter crap. Why do I say that? Well given that Ras' FLA shows McCain with a one point lead, and the candidates tied among Indies, unless Obama is woefully underperforming among Dems in the state (and FLA does not as much of a history of Dixicrats as say VA and NC do) then Rasmussen must have weighed its poll response based on about equal numbers of Dems and Reps. That is simply bunk. Not only do Dems outnumber Reps in FLA by almost 800,000, but the voter registration trends (as I mentioned earlier) show that Dems share of the electorate has risen through the year while Reps has dwindled. It is really hard to believe that Dems have been registering to vote in record numbers this year in FLA while Reps have taken a more casual approach and yet believe that just as many Reps as Dems will show up on election day. That is simply not the voting history in FLA. So readjusting to show a +5 to 6 Dem turnout advantage (or heck even a +3 or 4 advantage) and Obama is ahead by a couple (much along the lines of PPPs last FLA poll). Unless PPPs poll out tomorrow similarly shows a even playing field among the percentage of Dems to Reps polled, I again believe it should show somewhere in the +2 to +4 range. We shall see what PPPs partisan breakdown actually is.

Levi said...

I predict a tie in Florida and a one- to two-point lead in Indiana.

Kiran said...

That makes some sense. McCain is not trying in Indiana. My father (been voting in Indiana for over 20 years) has never been called by any campaign of any type in his life; the Obama campaign has contacted him.

Simple acknowledgement might make the 'silent majority' of the Indiana center/left show up. Prior to the current governor there was 16 years of comfortably elected Democratic governors, Evan Bayh holds his seat with ease, the majority of the congressional delegation are democrats, etc.

Anonymous said...

Tom, I don't get it. This is your post. Monitor it. Answer questions. Don't just post something with no proof whatsoever and walk away. Sheesh.

Karma said...

Not comfortable with getting our chains yanked around, are we? As a Hoosier, I think this is a wonderfully entertaining tease.

But, yeah. Bring on the poll!

MARINECORESOLDIER said...

RESULTS JUST IN

It's time to bash some liberal faces in.

I had a liberal call me a "baby killer" when I was standing in line at the groshery store after coming back from war in Iraq. I was dressed in my Marine Combat Suit (MCS), when a skinny, limp-wristed lib with dreadlocks and an Obama 08 sticker asked me "how many babbies did you kill today, solder?"

My otherwise cool and comitent compusure began to crack, a light sweat broke out on my manly, musclular, perfectly chiseled face. I thusly, engaged in "Combat Mode", my Marine Combat Vision (MCV) zeroed in on my liberal target, and with a quick succession of deadly ninjitsu chops--taught to me in Marine Fighting University (MFU) at the Quantico Base, I disengaged the enemy liberal combatant with a fatal blow to his lower celiac plexus. “Sonic boom!” I yelled, and the liberal collapsed subconscious on the floor at approximately 5.6 seconds. Bottles of KY jelly and organic veggie burger patties flying every which way.

I then stood at attention and rendered a salute, proudly I said "SIMPER FI!" and the groshery store erupted an applause and cheers, applauded my daring sacrifice, courage, and standing up for America against liberal tirany.

Are you libs jealous, that we marines are so manly and steal your woman?

SIMPER FI
JOHN AND SARA FOR AMERICA!

Anonymous said...

marinecoresolider nice to see you like to use racial sterotypes in your rant.

Anonymous said...

racial and homophobic.

Anonymous said...

marinecoresoldier
I don't believe your story for a minute, and I don't believe you are a marine. Any real marine would know how to spell "Semper Fi" correctly.
Simper Fi.... Come on!! Simper away in your violent, racist fantasies.

Anonymous said...

runescape money runescape gold runescape money buy runescape gold buy runescape money runescape money runescape gold wow power leveling wow powerleveling Warcraft Power Leveling Warcraft PowerLeveling buy runescape gold buy runescape money runescape itemsrunescape accounts runescape gp dofus kamas buy dofus kamas Guild Wars Gold buy Guild Wars Gold lotro gold buy lotro gold lotro gold buy lotro gold lotro gold buy lotro gold runescape money runescape power leveling runescape money runescape gold dofus kamas cheap runescape money cheap runescape gold Hellgate Palladium Hellgate London Palladium Hellgate money Tabula Rasa gold tabula rasa money Tabula Rasa Credit Tabula Rasa Credits Hellgate gold Hellgate London gold wow power leveling wow powerleveling Warcraft PowerLeveling Warcraft Power Leveling World of Warcraft PowerLeveling World of Warcraft Power Leveling runescape power leveling runescape powerleveling eve isk eve online isk eve isk eve online isk tibia gold Fiesta Silver Fiesta Gold
Age of Conan Gold
buy Age of Conan Gold
aoc gold

呼吸机
无创呼吸机
家用呼吸机
呼吸机
家用呼吸机
美国呼吸机
篮球培训
篮球培训班
篮球夏令营
china tour
beijing tour
beijing travel
china tour
tibet tour
tibet travel
computer monitoring software
employee monitoring

coco0610 said...

wholesale jewelry
wholesale handmade jewelry
wholesale fashion jewelry
wholesale costume jewelry
handmade jewelry
fashion jewelry
costume jewelry
jewelry wholesale
wholesale pearl
wholesale crystal
discount jewelry
cheap jewelry
china jewelry wholesaler
wholesale china jewelry
handcrafted jewelry
wholesale jewellery
wholesale turquoise
wholesale swarovski
wholesale gemstone
wholesale coral
wholesale shell

Anonymous said...

看房子,買房子,建商自售,自售,台北新成屋,台北豪宅,新成屋,豪宅,美髮儀器,美髮,儀器,髮型,EMBA,MBA,學位,EMBA,專業認證,認證課程,博士學位,DBA,PHD,在職進修,碩士學位,推廣教育,DBA,進修課程,碩士學位,網路廣告,關鍵字廣告,關鍵字,廣告,課程介紹,學分班,文憑,牛樟芝,段木,牛樟菇,日式料理, 台北居酒屋,燒肉,結婚,婚宴場地,推車飲茶,港式點心,尾牙春酒,台北住宿,國內訂房,台北HOTEL,台北婚宴,飯店優惠,台北結婚,婚宴場地,推車飲茶,港式點心,尾牙春酒,住宿,訂房,HOTEL,飯店,造型系列,學位,牛樟芝,腦磷脂,磷脂絲胺酸,SEO,婚宴,捷運,學區,美髮,儀器,髮型,牛樟芝,腦磷脂,磷脂絲胺酸,看房子,買房子,建商自售,自售,房子,捷運,學區,台北新成屋,台北豪宅,新成屋,豪宅,學位,碩士學位,進修,在職進修, 課程,教育,學位,證照,mba,文憑,學分班,網路廣告,關鍵字廣告,關鍵字,SEO,关键词,网络广告,关键词广告,SEO,关键词,网络广告,关键词广告,SEO,台北住宿,國內訂房,台北HOTEL,台北婚宴,飯店優惠,住宿,訂房,HOTEL,飯店,婚宴,台北住宿,國內訂房,台北HOTEL,台北婚宴,飯店優惠,住宿,訂房,HOTEL,飯店,婚宴,台北住宿,國內訂房,台北HOTEL,台北婚宴,飯店優惠,住宿,訂房,HOTEL,飯店,婚宴,結婚,婚宴場地,推車飲茶,港式點心,尾牙春酒,台北結婚,婚宴場地,推車飲茶,港式點心,尾牙春酒,結婚,婚宴場地,推車飲茶,港式點心,尾牙春酒,台北結婚,婚宴場地,推車飲茶,港式點心,尾牙春酒,結婚,婚宴場地,推車飲茶,港式點心,尾牙春酒,台北結婚,婚宴場地,推車飲茶,港式點心,尾牙春酒,居酒屋,燒烤,美髮,儀器,髮型,美髮,儀器,髮型,美髮,儀器,髮型,美髮,儀器,髮型,小套房,小套房,進修,在職進修,留學,證照,MBA,EMBA,留學,MBA,EMBA,留學,進修,在職進修,牛樟芝,段木,牛樟菇,住宿,民宿,飯宿,旅遊,住宿,民宿,飯宿,旅遊,住宿,民宿,飯宿,旅遊,住宿,民宿,飯宿,旅遊,住宿,民宿,飯宿,旅遊,住宿,民宿,飯宿,旅遊,住宿,民宿,飯宿,旅遊,美容,美髮,整形,造型,美容,美髮,整形,造型,美容,美髮,整形,造型,美容,美髮,整形,造型,美容,美髮,整形,造型,美容,美髮,整形,造型,美容,美髮,整形,造型,設計,室內設計,裝潢,房地產,設計,室內設計,裝潢,房地產,設計,室內設計,裝潢,房地產,設計,室內設計,裝潢,房地產,設計,室內設計,裝潢,房地產,設計,室內設計,裝潢,房地產,設計,室內設計,裝潢,房地產,設計,室內設計,裝潢,房地產,進修,在職進修,MBA,EMBA,進修,在職進修,MBA,EMBA,進修,在職進修,MBA,EMBA,進修,在職進修,MBA,EMBA,進修,在職進修,MBA,EMBA,進修,在職進修,MBA,EMBA,進修,在職進修,MBA,EMBA,住宿,民宿,飯店,旅遊,美容,美髮,整形,造型,設計,室內設計,裝潢,房地產,進修,在職進修,MBA,EMBA

coco0610 said...

wholesale jewelry
handmade jewelry
jewelry wholesale
fashion jewelry
costume jewelry
wholesale costume jewelry
wholesale fashion jewelry
wholesale pearl
wholesale crystal
discount jewelry
cheap jewelry
wholesale gemstone
wholesale swarovski
wholesale shell
wholesale coral
wholesale turquoise
china jewelry wholesaler
wholesale china jewelry
wholesale handmade jewelry
handcrafted jewelry
wholesale jewellery

Anonymous said...

Do want to know the magic of online games, and here you can get more ro zeny. Do you want to have a try? Come on and ragnarok zeny can make you happy.You can change a lot iro zeny for play games. And you will enjoy yourself at the same time. Playing online games can make much cheap zeny. And you can use the ragnarok online zeny do what you want to do in the online game. Come and join with us. We are waiting for your coming.

 
Web Statistics