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The Wall Street Journal ranked PPP as one of the top swing state pollsters in the country last year. (11-6-08 WSJ)
Wall Street Journal Swing State Polls Chart
The Wall Street Journal ranked PPP as one of the top swing state pollsters in the country last year. (11-6-08 WSJ)
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Contact Tom Jensen at tomj@publicpolicypolling.com or 919-744-6312 to discuss your project.
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Blog Archive
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2008
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October
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- Montana
- By the Numbers: Governor's Race
- Big Picture on Last Night's Polls
- Michigan Results
- New Mexico Results
- Merkley running away
- Oregon Results
- Mark Udall: Moving On Up
- Colorado Results
- Minnesota Senate: Franken leads
- Minnesota Results
- West Virginia: Down Ballot Stuff
- West Virginia Results
- Clarification
- Late Night with PPP
- Five Numbers: Why Kay Hagan could beat Elizabeth Dole
- Undecideds in North Carolina
- Ticket splitters back to normal
- The Black Vote in 2008: it's not all about quantit...
- More WRAL Polling Problems
- Kay Hagan's winning
- Five Numbers showing why Obama can win North Carolina
- Wake County fueling possible blue transformation
- Democrats primed for Wake Couny takeover
- Perdue in Charlotte
- Kerry/McCain Voters
- NC 8: Top of the Ticket
- Kissell takes the lead
- Other Council of State Races
- Race for Governor: All about Region
- Early Voters in North Carolina
- Hagan leads for eighth poll in a row
- NC Race Tightens
- Grrr
- New Voters in Focus
- Voter Movement in Virginia
- Obama hanging strong in Virginia
- Shifts in Ohio
- Friday Night Special: Obama leads in Ohio
- Obama and the Youth Vote
- Change in North Carolina Politics
- Early Voting in North Carolina
- Next Round of Voting
- Longer Field Periods and Round Numbers
- Swing Voters in North Carolina
- Why Elizabeth Dole is (probably) going to lose
- Coming up...
- Love Letters to PPP
- Why Obama will win Ohio before Florida
- Close Race in Florida
- Council of State Numbers
- Perdue lead grows
- Why is Indiana competitive?
- Indiana Statewide Races
- Obama holds a small lead in Indiana
- Florida and Indiana Clue
- Hagan leads for the 7th time in a row
- Obama expands NC lead
- Shifts in West Virginia
- West Virginia: McCain +8
- Research 2000 NC Poll
- Chickens and Eggs
- NC races for Senator, Governor could be decided by...
- Shifts in North Carolina
- West Virginia Update
- Council of State Races
- Governor's race still close as can be
- Where have all the PUMA's gone?
- West Virginia
- Where should we poll next week?
- Missouri: Other Offices
- Obama takes a small lead in Missouri
- Senate race tightens
- Obama maintains small NC lead
- Polling this week
- Udall continues to dominate in Colorado
- Obama lead in Colorado hits double digits
- North Carolina Judicial Candidate Party Affiliations
- Hispanics in Colorado
- McCain visits Eastern North Carolina as GOP standi...
- Republican Wishful Thinking?
- White Voters in the South: Introduction
- White Voters in the South: North Carolina
- White Voters in the South: Virginia
- White Voters in the South: Florida
- White Voters in the South: Conclusion
- Life in a swing state
- Obama expands Virginia lead
- Missouri It Is
- Virginia
- Swing Voters in the Senate Race
- Obama takes the lead in Ohio
- Palin in Ohio
- Council of State Races
- Perdue retakes the lead
- This Week
- Hagan continues to hold large lead
- The Power of Showing Up
- Obama expands NC lead
- As Palin visits NC, popularity down
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October
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Questions or Comments?
34 comments:
Is that Obama is doing unexpectedly better in Indiana or has Mccain taken a lead in Florida?
I hope by that you mean: Obama is up at least 3 or 4 in FL while he is up by 1 more point in IN.
Either way, Obama should get bump in FL this week with at least 3 events in big cities (2 with Hillary, 1 with Michelle).
Ugh... I'm not sure I like this tease...
I hope this means Obama is winning Indiana by 5 points and winning Florida by 2 or 3.
So unless you are showing Obama up by 5 in Indiana, your tease is giving me heartburn. Seriously, almost every poll has Obama ahead in FLA. Indeed, Obama GOTV crew told reporters they have the votes to win in FLA all they need to do now is turn them out, which would suggest Obama is doing well in the state.
I do agree that almost all polls have Obama ahead in FL and I would say he has a slight edge in the state. However, GOTV crews ALWAYS think they have the votes now all they need is to turn them out... Kerry thought he had the votes AND turned them out in Ohio... Dean was convinced he was unbeatable in Iowa because of this, etc.
my hope here is that Obama is at 3 or 2 in Fl but 5 or so in IN. I don't want him tied or behind in FL!
Wha-wha-wha-WHAT?
Dude, lame tease! This is killing us! (Although here's to hoping that both numbers are great for Obama).
Actually, with the leads Obama has in VA, CO, and NC, FL probably doesn't really matter (although I'd love to see him win there). If McCain's late drive nets him FL and OH, but loses the rest it's a comfortable win for Obama.
I'm kind of getting worried about FL. After a few polls showing Obama up by a lot, Rasmussen is showing him down again, and SUSA still refuses to give him a lead (though their sample has a messed up D-R breakdown.)
Agreed the Ras FLA poll makes no sense. How can Obama be leading in VA and NC but be losing in FLA? Someone please explain this to me. The demographics in VA and NC are much more favorable to McCain than they are in FLA, yet Ras (and maybe PPP) show Obama performing better in VA and NC than in FLA?! That just does not jive.
Actually the demographics of VA are more favorable to Obama than they are in Florida.
Florida will depend on turnout. I like the events Obama and Hillary are doing there today.
This is a tease that makes sense to me. John McCain has been campaigning effectively and his debate performance was his best of the year. I wouldn't be surprised by a Florida result that was McCain +7 and an Indiana result of McCain +3.
Maybe you are finally applying a realistic voter screen instead of attempting to re-enact your performance of the Pennsylvania Primary this year.
Hey fake Jerome,
When PPP is proven right I hope you come back here and give Tom and the rest of these guys a huge apology.
Prediction:
Indiana: Obama 48 McCain 47
Florida: Tied 47-47
Both probably good news because unless you have McCain +3 in either, Obama's GOTV will take both.
Note about this teaser: It never says that Obama is losing either state.
I'm guessing you wouldn't tease with bad news, and looking at your previous polling in FL (compared to SUSA) and your prior better for Obama OH #s:
IN +4
FL +2
Just my guess
I hope you aren't teasing us with bad news, but given the recent other polls showing FL essentially a dead heat, maybe you are about to show the same ...
Alright, my predictions:
FL: 49(M)-48(O)
IN: 46(M)-46(O)
The two most recent Florida polls (Ras and SUSA) have shown McCain with a tiny lead. The last PPP poll of Florida had Obama with a +3 lead, and he probably isn't doing as well since the race is somewhat tightening. I'm predicting Obama leading FL by 1 pt and IN by 2 pts.
My guess (based on the prior SUSA polls) is Obama +1 in FL and Obama +3 in IN...
I don't expect Obama to win either state, but I would be amazed if Indiana is closer than Florida on election day.
With voter registration trends in FLA showing Dems share of the electorate increasing through the year (somethin NEITHER party has accomplished in Pres elections going back to 1996) and Reps share decreasing, and an acknowledged (by Reps in the FLA state party no less) superior ground game by Obama in FLA, I would have trouble believing that somehow McCain is ahead in the state. Heck even the Rep gov of FLA wont campaign with McCain. Going back to my earlier demographics question, admittedly VA may have a slight advantage over FLA in its demographic makeup so as to be a more likely place for a Dem win, but FLA hands down has better demographics for a Dem candidate than NC yet all the polls still show Obama ahead in NC. Finally, Obama's ad buys in FLA are overwhelming. Just does not make sense to me.
Good thing Obama just needs CO to win, and McCain has all but given up on that state.
I think right now the state polls are lagging indicators. Current polling is going to show the trend of late last week, but Sunday and Monday have been huge days for Obama. This will probably be reflected in the state polling we start to see towards the end of the week.
Having crunched some numbers it appears Rasmussen's FLA poll is utter crap. Why do I say that? Well given that Ras' FLA shows McCain with a one point lead, and the candidates tied among Indies, unless Obama is woefully underperforming among Dems in the state (and FLA does not as much of a history of Dixicrats as say VA and NC do) then Rasmussen must have weighed its poll response based on about equal numbers of Dems and Reps. That is simply bunk. Not only do Dems outnumber Reps in FLA by almost 800,000, but the voter registration trends (as I mentioned earlier) show that Dems share of the electorate has risen through the year while Reps has dwindled. It is really hard to believe that Dems have been registering to vote in record numbers this year in FLA while Reps have taken a more casual approach and yet believe that just as many Reps as Dems will show up on election day. That is simply not the voting history in FLA. So readjusting to show a +5 to 6 Dem turnout advantage (or heck even a +3 or 4 advantage) and Obama is ahead by a couple (much along the lines of PPPs last FLA poll). Unless PPPs poll out tomorrow similarly shows a even playing field among the percentage of Dems to Reps polled, I again believe it should show somewhere in the +2 to +4 range. We shall see what PPPs partisan breakdown actually is.
I predict a tie in Florida and a one- to two-point lead in Indiana.
That makes some sense. McCain is not trying in Indiana. My father (been voting in Indiana for over 20 years) has never been called by any campaign of any type in his life; the Obama campaign has contacted him.
Simple acknowledgement might make the 'silent majority' of the Indiana center/left show up. Prior to the current governor there was 16 years of comfortably elected Democratic governors, Evan Bayh holds his seat with ease, the majority of the congressional delegation are democrats, etc.
Tom, I don't get it. This is your post. Monitor it. Answer questions. Don't just post something with no proof whatsoever and walk away. Sheesh.
Not comfortable with getting our chains yanked around, are we? As a Hoosier, I think this is a wonderfully entertaining tease.
But, yeah. Bring on the poll!
RESULTS JUST IN
It's time to bash some liberal faces in.
I had a liberal call me a "baby killer" when I was standing in line at the groshery store after coming back from war in Iraq. I was dressed in my Marine Combat Suit (MCS), when a skinny, limp-wristed lib with dreadlocks and an Obama 08 sticker asked me "how many babbies did you kill today, solder?"
My otherwise cool and comitent compusure began to crack, a light sweat broke out on my manly, musclular, perfectly chiseled face. I thusly, engaged in "Combat Mode", my Marine Combat Vision (MCV) zeroed in on my liberal target, and with a quick succession of deadly ninjitsu chops--taught to me in Marine Fighting University (MFU) at the Quantico Base, I disengaged the enemy liberal combatant with a fatal blow to his lower celiac plexus. “Sonic boom!” I yelled, and the liberal collapsed subconscious on the floor at approximately 5.6 seconds. Bottles of KY jelly and organic veggie burger patties flying every which way.
I then stood at attention and rendered a salute, proudly I said "SIMPER FI!" and the groshery store erupted an applause and cheers, applauded my daring sacrifice, courage, and standing up for America against liberal tirany.
Are you libs jealous, that we marines are so manly and steal your woman?
SIMPER FI
JOHN AND SARA FOR AMERICA!
marinecoresolider nice to see you like to use racial sterotypes in your rant.
racial and homophobic.
marinecoresoldier
I don't believe your story for a minute, and I don't believe you are a marine. Any real marine would know how to spell "Semper Fi" correctly.
Simper Fi.... Come on!! Simper away in your violent, racist fantasies.
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