It looks like there could be a shift of as many as 20 points in the Democratic direction in Virginia relative to 2004.
Certainly Barack Obama's 61-24 lead with new voters has a lot to do with that. But there's a lot more going on as well:
-A major shift in suburbia. When you hear about Virginia's changing electorate, this is where it's happening. Suburban voters in our poll reported supporting John Kerry just 48-44 in 2004. Now they're going for Obama 58-38. Given that almost half of Virginians describe themselves as suburbanites, this shift explains Obama's success in the state more than anything else.
-Independents turned on their heads. This is happening pretty much everywhere but that doesn't make it any less notable. The ones we surveyed supported George W. Bush 46-38 in 2004. Now they're for Obama 48-39.
-A big shift with young voters. The ones we surveyed who voted in 2004 supported John Kerry by a narrow margin of 42-36. Now the demographic as a whole support Obama 56-34.
Full results here