Thursday, April 30, 2009

Illinois Governor: General Election

Lisa Madigan would start out with a strong lead against Republican Gubernatorial candidate Bill Brady, while the contest would be closer if current Governor Pat Quinn was nominated for a full term.

Madigan leads Brady 46-27, with Quinn holding a 39-32 advantage.

Madigan does better than Quinn largely because she is more popular among independents (getting 43% of the vote compared to 34% for Quinn) and Democrats (earning 67% compared to 58%.)

Brady is a blank slate to 61% of voters in the state with 23% holding a favorable opinion of him and 17% having an unfavorable one.

Quinn's overall approval rating is 49% with 27% holding no opinion about him and 25% disapproving of his work so far.

These numbers are artificially close because Quinn and Madigan are both under performing with black voters right now, as Madigan gets 51% and Quinn only 34% of the African American vote at this early point. They probably do each have some work to do to shore up their support with that important Democratic demographic, but those figures are likely to be upwards of at least 80% when election time does come around.

Full results here.

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