Monday, July 26, 2010

2012 Florida/Nevada GOP numbes

Mitt Romney's the favorite at this early stage in a couple key Republican primary states: Florida and Nevada.

Romney won the Nevada caucuses in his 2008 bid and he would again if the vote was being held today. 34% of Nevada Republican voters say they prefer Romney to 28% for Newt Gingrich. Sarah Palin at 16%, Mike Huckabee at 11%, and Ron Paul at 7% poll much further back.

Romney came up just short in Florida last time, but for now Republicans in the state prefer him to the other leading potential 2012 candidates. Romney gets 31% with Palin and Gingrich tied for second at 23% and Huckabee and Paul further back at 15% and 6% respectively.

These numbers are good news for Romney and Gingrich and bad news for Huckabee and Palin. Romney's failure to win Florida in 2008 pretty much scuttled his chances at the nomination but it looks like he could rectify that this time around. Gingrich continues to poll well pretty much everywhere across the country.

Huckabee's inability to built on his victory in Iowa two years ago was the death of his candidacy and he's not doing very well in Florida or Nevada this time either. Poll after poll shows that even though Palin is the most popular of the Republicans with her party base, it doesn't translate into people wanting her to be their 2012 nominee and these numbers continue that trend.

Full results here


NRH said...

Two observations of note...

Romney is very clearly the 'moderate' choice in Florida while holding his own among the conservatives. In Nevada he leads with all the categories so he's not as notably ahead with moderates.

If it's true that 50% of the Florida Republican Party is over 65, the next few years are going to be seeing some dramatic political shifts in Florida as that elderly cohort succumbs to statistics.

Anonymous said...

Once people find out that neocon Romney setup Obamacare in Massachusetts, he's finished.

Ron Paul is the only candidate with any credibility and the only choice if we want to truly move the country towards liberty.

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