Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Sandoval up big

PPP's first look at the Nevada Governor's race finds the same thing all other polling has: a wide lead for Republican Brian Sandoval. He's up 52-38 on Rory Reid.

Sandoval has some of the best favorability numbers PPP has found for any candidate in the country this cycle. 42% of voters see him positively to only 31% with an unfavorable opinion. Independents, who don't like much of anyone right now, give him positive numbers by a 39/31 margin.

Reid meanwhile has some of the worst favorability numbers PPP has found for candidates across the country. 34% see him favorably, while 48% have a negative opinion. Independents give him bad marks by a remarkably lopsided 23/54 spread.

Sandoval is winning 86% of the Republican vote while Reid is currently getting just 70% of the Democratic vote. Beyond that independents are going to Sandoval by a 55-28 margin. This doesn't look like it's going to be much of a race. It's interesting that when Nevada Republicans went to the polls last month they chose one of the strongest GOP nominees in the country for Governor while also choosing one of the weakest for Senate.

You also have to wonder given how much stronger Sandoval is than Sharron Angle and how much stronger Harry Reid is than his son if the GOP would be cruising to victory in both races if they had swapped candidates and had Sandoval going for the Senate and Angle for Governor but that's water under the bridge now.

The most impressive thing about the likelihood that Sandoval will keep the office in Republican hands is that outgoing GOP Governor Jim Gibbons is one of the most unpopular in the country with 63% of voters disapproving of him and only 25% giving him good marks. Most unpopular outgoing Governors across the country are really weighing down their party's prospects for keeping the seat, but Sandoval's strength is bucking that trend.

Full results here


NRH said...

If Harry Reid had been up against Sandoval, Harry's popularity would probably still be in the dumps. A large part of what's improved his numbers is the contrast with the outright lunacy and incompetence of Sharron Angle. If Angle and Sandoval had switched races, then Rory Reid would probably be looking better and Harry would be looking worse. Harry Reid has to be the luckiest politician in America this year to have gotten a lifeline like Angle to climb out of his hole with.

Jayant Reddy said...

NRH is right, Rory's favorables would be higher if he had such a bad opponent. Rather than hypothesizing Angle as Rory's opponent, a more real-life scenario would be if he ran against Gibbons, who he'd clearly beat, just as Harry will beat Angle.

I must say, though, that Rory so far has actually run a decent campaign except for the epic fail of not doing a Spanish-language ad during the World Cup, when Sandoval in fact did one. And to think Rory speaks Spanish and could have narrated himself, while Sandoval who is Hispanic does NOT speak Spanish!

Otherwise, Rory's done well to pick a signature issue, education, and submerse his last name to establish his own identity separate from his dad.

But alas, unless Sandoval really screws up, Rory is not going to win.

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