It appeared there had been a drop in his approval ratings in May and June, possibly as a result of his reaction to the Arizona immigration law. I speculated if his stepped up commitment to immigration reform over the last month would find favor with Hispanics.
It seems Obama's increased attention to immigration over the last month may have paid off. While overall support for the President has dropped, Hispanic support of the President has seen a slight bump from 59 to 63%. For the first time in three months Obama is regaining not losing Hispanic supporters.
We'll have Obama's full approval numbers out tomorrow.
5 comments:
The far-left lunacy of the Democrats on immigration issues will only further alienate the majority of Americans. Obama is doing his best to turn Democrats into a permanent minority.
And Obama puppet Harry Reid is doing his best to ensure his own defeat.
http://michellemalkin.com/2010/07/13/harry-reid-said-what/
When will the 2012 numbers be out? Today? Tomorrow?
Could you give us a clue about the results?
John, get on some Ritalin. We release our #s when we release them. The sun will still rise and set on this earth, and in a few days, you will know what you want to know.
There are two categories of people whose voting is significantly influenced by immigration stances. One is the racist right-wing base, which doesn't care that illegal immigration is massively down, that Obama's tactic of forensic accounting is actually proving much more successful in reducing economic incentives to illegally immigrate than the preferred right wing tactic of armed raids, or pretty much anything else that conflicts with their delusion that somehow immigration has just magically become an issue only once a Republican left the White House. Unsurprisingly, these voters aren't interested in anything but more excuses to blame Democrats for exacerbating the problems that Democrats have actually reduced. And then there's the other group, the people whose daily lives stand to be negatively affected by demands to "See your papers" at any time, who for very natural reasons are fleeing the right in droves - it happened in California and swung that state in a political heartbeat out of competitive territory, and now all across the Mountain West Hispanics are abandoning the Republican Party (as witness Brewster's collapsed ratings among Hispanics). Conservatives are very experienced at trying to deny reality, but they haven't got any answers to the demographic trends that show their long-term and ongoing embrace of the Southern Strategy has crippled them with American minority groups. Combined with the heavily Democratic lean of America's fastest-growing 'religious' group (which is to say, those who think it pretty silly to beg an imaginary friend for help) and America's progressive future is bright.
Elena, with all due respect, I'm very skeptical the "movement" among Hispanics in PPP national polling over these many months has been anything more than statistical noise. I recall your previous blog post on this subject admitted an extremely high margin of error with the small subsamples of Hispanic voters in PPP polling. That coupled with the size of the "movement" your polls are showing makes me seriously doubt there's been any substantial movement in opinion at all.
Regarding Hispanic opinion broadly, too many commentators make too much of identity-based policy issues as a driver of opinion in minority communities. I'm Indian-American and I roll my eyes at the primary attention political figures give to U.S. policy toward India when speaking to Indian-American groups. That's not a trivial issue for many Indian-Americans, but we live HERE and are more interested in the same things that white and black and Hispanic and other Asian voters care about.
Same thing applies to Hispanics, they are not all about immigration. They care more about the economy and jobs and education and health care and so many other not-so-hot button issues more than about immigration, even though they care about immigration more than do most other voters.
I do, however, appreciate your state-level polling that suggests 1the Arizona law might be driving Hispanic voting behavior and turnout in Southwestern states this fall. That seems very credible to me, and the movement in your polls in those states has been substantial and consistent.
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