Thursday, July 22, 2010

Obama and Reid

I think there's generally an assumption that Harry Reid's difficulties in running for reelection are self inflicted but one thing that really should not be underestimated as a factor is how unpopular Barack Obama is in Nevada. His stock has fallen quickly after he won the state big in 2008, and on this poll his approval was just 44% with 52% of Nevadans disapproving of him.

There is close to a 100% correlation between how people feel about Obama and how they're planning to vote in the Senate race. With voters who approve of Obama Reid leads Sharron Angle 94-3. There is basically no one who still likes Obama who isn't planning to vote for Reid this fall. With voters who disapprove of Obama Angle leads Reid 85-7. Reid is not showing much ability to get folks who don't like the President to move beyond that and still support him, although he is enough to give him a small lead.

The most serious threat to Reid's reelection prospects isn't Angle- it's Obama. Reid has to hope the President doesn't get any more unpopular in the state because if he does he might bring the Senator down with him.

Obama's unpopularity in Nevada giving Reid problems is emblematic of a broader trend through the Mountain West. In May we found Obama's approval numbers in Colorado at 45/50, a 14 point drop from his nine point victory spread in 2008. Against that backdrop it's no wonder Democrats are struggling to hold onto the Governor's office and Senate seat they hold there. Obama's also had a particularly acute drop in New Mexico. His approval there when we polled in February was 45/48, a 20 point decline on the spread from his 17 point win there. That's contributing to a Governor's race that's a lot tighter than might have been expected a year ago.

I still think the long term trend in the Mountain West will be toward the Democrats but the short term dramatic decline in Obama's popularity throughout the region is going to be the bigger factor in this year's election.


Christian Liberty said...

As the damage to the economy, caused by government spending and regulation and taxation, becomes more clear... Obama and Reid have nowhere to go but down.

Christian Liberty said...

A plurality of voters already believe that Obama DOES NOT DESERVE REELECTION and that the country would be better off had McCAIN become president.

"Quinnipiac now pegs him at just 44% approval -- a number below President Bill Clinton's approval rating just before his party lost control of Congress in 1994. When asked which party they plan to vote for this November, likely voters in the Quinnipiac survey picked Republicans by 43% to 38%. This was despite an expressed lack of confidence in the ability of Republican leaders in Congress to tackle the nation's problems."

Anonymous said...

No, Christian liberty. Sharron angle will self-destruct with her extreme policies.

Tom, did you do all 3 congressional districts?

wt said...

Nate Silver is still giving Angle a 58% chance of winning. I will gladly take that at this point.

SharplineMultimedia said...

I'm an Independent in Nevada who can't wait tell Harry Reid GOOD BYE!! *^%^% Repubs and Dems. He may have been born in nevada, but he's not a Nevadan at all, and most people know it. His add here with a lame union worker just proves how out of touch he is with ALL Nevadans. It says all Sharron Angle wants to do is fight for her job. Here is were Harry shows his colors. That is why Nevada is the battle born state. WE FIGHT for what we believe in. It is very fitting how he campaigned for change with Obama, and change here in Nevada is what most people want. Change in the form of Harry Reid out of office. No amount of television adds will change that.

Christian Liberty said...

Harry Reid is the extremist. Sharron Angle is well within the mainstream of America's founding.

Americans want change: change AWAY from Reid and toward the founding principles represented well by Sharron Angle.

Ranjit said...


I can guarantee that, Reid is not going to get new votes, when unemployment in Nevada is 14%. There is going to be a huge turn out from Republicans and the national wave will swallow Reid. Trust me, at the end of the day, they will accept Angle. As soon as she starts her commercial back, she will go up.

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