Tuesday, July 13, 2010

Ticket Splitting in NC

North Carolina Democrats have generally kept control of the Legislature even in bad years for the party nationally because voters in the state separate out how they feel about the Democrats in Washington from the Democrats in the state. Early signs this year though are that ticket splitting may be out the door, and animosity toward Barack Obama could hand Republicans control of the General Assembly.

Our newest statewide survey finds 46% of North Carolinians approving of President Obama's performance and 50% disapproving. The big concern for Democrats at the state level is that voters unhappy with Obama are planning to vote Republicans for the Legislature this fall by a margin of 80-6. If you don't like Obama you're pretty universally planning to vote for the GOP this fall and in a state where a majority of voters are displeased with what the President's doing that adds up to a 45-42 Republican advantage on the generic legislative ballot.

Perhaps most telling is that among Democrats who disapprove of Obama, largely rural whites in either the Mountains or the eastern part of the state, Republicans have a 51-30 generic ballot advantage.

Democrats are going to be in big trouble this year if voters can't separate their feelings about Barack Obama from their legislative votes, but it's still a little early for Republicans to be picking out their new offices. Democratic candidates have historically had better funded, better run campaigns than Republicans in the state so the folks the party actually has on the ballot may outrun their 'generic' numbers. And of course there's still plenty of time for the landscape to change. But a diversion from ticket splitting for conservative Democrats could end up being a major factor in this year's election.


Anonymous said...

THis doesn't exactly relate to NC ticket splitting, but this: http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/node/38320

... begs for someone to poll whether the public wants Bush and Cheney to be indicted. To the best of my knowledge, no polling outfit has done polling to this effect. On the next national poll, please do something like this.

Christian Liberty said...

"Democratic candidates have historically had better funded, better run campaigns than Republicans in the state"

Incumbents have historically had better funded campaigns than challengers. In momentous years, such fundraising advantages are of little help. Democrats outspent Republicans in 1994, and lost more seats than any midterm election in 48 years!

"And of course there's still plenty of time for the landscape to change."

Yes, there is time for people to realize just how horribly Democrats have destroyed the economy. The outrageously high optimism regarding the economy just shows how far Democrats' numbers still have to fall.

Unknown said...

"Yes, there is time for people to realize just how horribly Democrats have destroyed the economy."

you rewriting history...the financial crises happened under Bush/Devil...i mean Cheney.

Christian Liberty said...

Chris, YOU are rewriting history. The financial crisis was CAUSED BY DEMOCRATS: DEMOCRATIC CONGRESS (Frank, Dodd: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac), ACORN (demanding loans to people who couldn't repay), Carter-Clinton (Community Reinvestment Act), FDR (FDIC, Higher income taxes, Socialist Insecurity), Woodrow Wilson (income tax, federal reserve).

Without exception, Democrats were behind EVERYTHING that made the economy worse. Democrats were the problem 100% of the time. The only thing Republicans ever did wrong was not find a way to undo the damage CAUSED BY DEMOCRATS!!!

Christian Liberty said...

And more recently, it was DEMONcrats that buried the country in another trillion of debt for payoffs to their corrupt cronies... and crippled the greatest healthcare system in the world with a tyrannical government-controlled monstrosity.

Democrats have ALWAYS harmed America. Everything that has ever been good for America has always come from the right.

Christian Liberty said...

And now a majority of American have come to realize that it would be better if the GOP won control of Congress.


JCordes said...

Considering North Carolina's unemployment rate is both higher than the nation's and *incredibly high*, I'm actually impressed the president's ratings are that *good*.

Anonymous said...

Wow, Christian Liberty knows everything. He must really be smart and on top of things. This must be his board.

Christian Liberty said...

J, considering how many people actually think Democrats have done anything to make the economy better... and considering how many people actually believe we are in a "recovery" and won't go into a "double dip recession", support for Obama and the Democrats is unrealistically high... and will only come back down to earth in due time.

Just like McCain was even or ahead of Obama until September when the damage Democrats had done to the economy became apparent (and somehow Democrats escaped responsibility for their sabotage of the economy), we are now at that point where it only looks like a tossup because the damage Democrats have done to the economy is becoming more clear over the next few months. Only this time Democrats won't be able to escape responsibility for their sabotage of American liberty and prosperity.

Oh, and Obamacare is already making healthcare (and the economy) WORSE, just like conservatives knew it would all along (and you should have listened).


Christian Liberty said...

Obama and Democrats have crippled America's economy... and they have no one to blame but themselves

"the brute fact remains that even enormous government spending can't revive an economy when government threatens to take away anything you earn.
America has seen this kind of thing before. In the late 1930s, when Franklin Roosevelt raised taxes on high earners, encouraged lawless sit-in strikes by labor unions and took over utility businesses, the response was a "capital strike."
Instead of creating jobs, businesses and investors put their money in mattresses. The result was a stagnant economy and double-digit unemployment-and a 75-seat Republican gain in the 1938 off-year elections."

Read more at the Washington Examiner: http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/politics/Obama-economy-sends-Americans-to-their-mattresses-98134404.html#ixzz0td5oCCJK

Anonymous said...

It is about time that people in North Carolina start thinking "hmmmmmmm...socialism bad, capitalism good!" LOL

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